It might be a bit difficult to know who to put your money one when the time comes to bet on UFC Fight Night 88 on May 29th – especially if you’ve missed the previous 87 fight nights. The main event between Tomas Almeida and Cody Garbrandt should in theory be a no-brainer; the Brazilian is the UFC betting favorite for a reason – or, to be more accurate, for several reasons, even many reasons. Would I say he has a plethora of reasons to be the favorite? Oh yes, he has a plethora.
Thomas “Thominhas” Almeida (-160) vs. Cody “No Love” Garbrandt (+140). Nicknames are about the only department in which the American has an advantage. They’re both undefeated bantamweights, as well as the same age and have been active for about 4-5 years – and yet, Almeida has managed to accrue much more experience with 21 fights as opposed to Garbrandt’s 8. Additionally, Almeida lands more punches per minute and more accurately than “No Love.” He also absorbs more punches per minute, and people who bet on UFC Fight Night have to give someone credit for being able to take it as well as dish it out. And for what it’s worth, the Brazilian said he would knockout Garbrandt in the second round.
Notwithstanding all of the above, the American believes he will beat Almeida. And he doesn’t just believe it in general, the way you have to believe in yourself every time you step inside an octagon or need to open a jar of pickles. There is one very specific detail that Garbrandt thinks gives him the edge, and it’s his perceived lack of confidence on the part of Almeida. According to Garbrandt, if the South American deserved all of the praise being heaped onto him on account of his 21-0 record, he would have predicted a KO in the first, not the second round. As a result, Garbrandt now is convinced he will be the one in 21-and-1 – which may be not only not right, but not even wrong, but hey, you gotta psyche yourself up.
Credit where it’s due; though – this would not be the first time a UFC Fight Night betting underdog American beats a favored Brazilian. The recent Miocic/Werdum upset obviously comes to mind, but people who bet on UFC not forget the time that Moses Robbins submitted Wilfredo Murillo with the Saskatchewan Spinning Nerve Hold in ’97. Garbrandt says he’s a better, more well-rounded wrestler, grappler, and striker who hits harder and faster than Almeida. In addition to that, he’s also meaner and guarantees he will take Almeida – who has no chin – out in the first round. Well, he certainly has the trash talk down, and it never hurts to try and get inside your opponent’s mind – but I’ve seen photos, and I can attest that Almeida most certainly has a chin.