Wagering on football is oftentimes all about perception. One of the most ridiculous things that a handicapper can do in preparing for a weekend of football betting is to waste time and effort studying a lot of statistics and media articles that already explain the obvious.
Wagering on football means that gamblers must understand the obvious but it is not as simple as it appears. The football betting oddsmakers simply make the side and total numbers based on how mass gambling public is going to react. They may also make the lines so attractive on the undesirable teams, that the masses get sucked into losses with those “come on” wagering on football odds.
Regardless of what the talking heads at ESPN say, the wagering on football line is not set on what the experts in Vegas really think based on the actual and true merits of the teams. The line is set on what the folks in Vegas are really experts at; that is the mass gambling public. If there is a matchup on the football betting board between a powerhouse college football team that is at home against a weak opponent, surely the host would already be a prohibitive favorite on pure merit, but the wagering on football oddsmakers will make them into an overlay in preparation for consumer demand, which will be overloaded on the home chalk. Since the wagering on football oddsmakers know this, they will drive up the price on the home chalk to the point that they are worthless as a gambling value. The wagering on football public doesn’t want to do it but will continue to do it anyway because they hate taking road dogs.
The same principle applies to a pair of bad teams squaring off. The wagering on football oddsmakers will build in an extra price on the home team based on nothing more than the masses always flocking to home chalks. What this all leads to is the public continuing to pay more than they should on the betting line as they are wagering on football.
About the author
mcorella: