Sportsbook bettors are often extremely reluctant to wager on the absolute worst teams in a league. This reluctance is actually quite logical, as the worst teams have typically shown little indication that they can play well and cover the offshore sportsbook odds with any regularity. Nevertheless, by wagering on such teams to cover the sportsbook spreads at the end of a season, one can actually sometimes find decent sportsbook betting value.
Sportsbook betting on the worst teams in a sport can be extremely frustrating because such teams are prone to losing in blowouts. It is hard to enjoy watching a team one has wagered on get beaten by several touchdowns in football, for instance. Moreover, many bettors prefer wagering on favorites to win big than underdogs to simply cover the offshore sportsbook spreads. Additionally, wagering on the worst teams can provide horrible sportsbook value, particularly at the beginning of a season. If one fails to recognize how bad such a team is during the first weeks of a season then one will undoubtedly place numerous unwise wagers.
For an example of this phenomenon, one simply needs to consider the two teams that finished the 2007-08 NFL season with the worst records – the Dolphins and Rams. By the end of Week 8, neither team had won a single game outright, the Dolphins had a 2-4-2 record against the offshore spreads, and the Rams had a 1-7 record against the offshore spreads.
Nevertheless, when a horrible team continues losing and failing to cover the sportsbook odds, the lines makers will naturally make the team a progressively bigger underdog in future matchups. Eventually, the sportsbook lines will be set such that even the worst teams can realistically cover the odds and offer genuine sportsbook betting value. For instance, the Dolphins had a 3-3 record against the odds in their final six matchups of 2007-08, and the Rams had a 4-4 record against the odds in their final eight matchups.
Clearly, neither team offered tremendous value even at the end of the season, but their records in the final weeks indicate that the teams were far more capable of covering the sportsbook lines than they were in early weeks. Bettors, therefore, should not count out the worst teams in the second half of a season, because such teams will probably offer betting value in certain matchups. One simply must handicap games carefully and determine the matchups in which the bottom teams have the potential to play beyond bettors’ low expectations.
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