To bet on football at the beginning of a new season one must predict how betting football on each team will have changed since the previous season.
Gamblers who bet on football often underestimate the amount of change that will be witnessed during a new season. Betting football on a team that played relatively poorly during one season can often be very profitable the next, simply because teams are good at rebounding from bad seasons.
To bet on football assuming that betting football on each team will be almost exactly how it was in the past year is very unwise. Those veterans who have bet on football for many years know that there is lots of turnover in the NFL and generally only about half of the teams that reach the playoffs in any given year will return to the playoffs the following year. One reason why teams often surprise people who bet on football by rebounding from a mediocre year with a playoff season is that teams often play worse once a season appears lost. By midseason many teams in the league have already realized that their chances of reaching the playoffs are quite slim, and to bet on football on a team that has reached such a realization is very risky. Anyone who has ever bet on football knows that football is extremely physical and injuries are common. Consequently, it should come as no surprise to those who bet on football that NFL players do not like risking injury just to finish a season 6-10 instead of 5-11. In other words, a team’s effort can decrease, even if just minimally, once the season seems lost, and this decrease in effort can have direct implications on how one should bet on football. However, once a new season begins and the team has perhaps enjoyed a few improvements, the slate is clean and the team is ready to perform at the highest level again, possibly even beating elite teams and shocking gamblers who bet on football against the team last season.
This phenomenon can be observed every year by gamblers who bet on football. Nevertheless, it is not a phenomenon that can be expected from every team. The very worst teams in the league will often improve quite gradually because they must undergo severe rebuilding phases during which betting football on the team will doubtfully be very profitable. Such teams may win a few more games in a new season and offer slightly more value to gamblers who bet on football, but one should probably not expect the absolute worst teams in one season to reach the playoffs the following year.
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