Superbowl Odds are Not Always Accurate

December 1, 2010 NFL Football

Superbowl odds have the Indianapolis Colts as a 5-point favorite on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.

Super Bowl XLIV betting started with the Colts a four-point favorite and the line went up to 5.5 before coming back down to five. Superbowl odds are interesting to consider and they are not always as accurate as you might think.

Superbowl odds last year were pretty accurate as the Pittsburgh Steelers won but didn’t cover against Arizona.  Two years ago the Superbowl odds were not accurate at all.  The New England Patriots were unbeaten and made 12-point favorites over the New York Giants.  The Giants were a great road team that season and the oddsmakers got caught up in the hype and made the Patriots a huge favorite.  The Patriots not only didn’t cover the Superbowl odds, they didn’t even win the game. How accurate will Super Bowl XLIV betting numbers be?

The worst mistake made by oddsmakers was in Super Bowl III when the Baltimore Colts were 18-point favorites against the New York Jets.  The Colts and the NFL were thought to be far superior to the AFL teams and the Jets were given little chance of winning.  Quarterback Joe Namath was named Super Bowl MVP even though it was the New York defense that really won the game.

Another major mistake made by oddsmakers was in Super Bowl VII when the Miami Dolphins were actually underdogs against the Washington Redskins. The Dolphins were unbeaten heading into the game, yet they were underdogs in Superbowl odds.    The oddsmakers thought that Miami had faced a much easier schedule than Washington and it didn’t help that the Dolphins had been routed the previous year by Dallas in the Super Bowl.  The Miami defense really won that game as Washington’s only score came in the fourth quarter on a fumble return.

Rarely in the Super Bowl will the oddsmakers underrate a favorite but that is what happened in Super Bowl XX.  The Chicago Bears were 10-point favorites against the New England Patriots and many thought it should have been a lot more.

Another Superbowl odds mistake was in Super Bowl XXXVII when the Oakland Raiders were favored against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Bucs had the top defense in the league but the oddsmakers favored the offense of the Raiders. The Bucs routed the Raiders 48-21. 

Will Super Bowl XLIV betting odds be accurate?  Are the Colts a deserving favorite or should the Saints be getting more respect in Super Bowl XLIV betting?

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