During any week in football odds, more often than not a sure winning team goes down in flames versus the college or NFL odds.
Football odds are greatly influenced by home filed advantage. Surprisingly, home field advantage is oftentimes overrated with both college and NFL odds. Time and again, and seemingly more frequently, road teams are having success versus the football odds.
Football odds usually have home field worth about three points but that is a generic number that is not very accurate. Tough home teams such as the Pittsburgh Steelers may have a home field that is worth four or five points, not so much on the field but on the NFL odds boards because gamblers tend to flock towards them when they are at home. The same would hold true in college football odds, where such teams as Michigan, Miami-Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, and Notre Dame are often favored by more at home by the football betting odds makers than what is actually warranted because of their reputations with gamblers. The NFL is a bit different since many teams get a lot of respect at home but there is no doubt that Indianapolis, New England, Dallas and Pittsburgh get a lot of respect when they are at home.
What can you do with this knowledge of home field advantage in football odds? You can be very careful about laying too many points in football odds with home teams. The fact is that the public loves to bet on home teams. The public also loves to bet favorites. This makes home favorites a very dangerous bet in football odds. Yes, sometimes they will win, but oftentimes they will be poor values. This is particularly true in NFL odds where road teams can definitely cover the spread.
Home advantage is something that the media harps on and hypes, which often causes the adverse affect of making home teams overlays versus football odds. You hear all the time about how a home team is a sure winner. If you are going to bet home teams in college or NFL football odds you must get value and that means understanding that home field advantage is oftentimes overvalued.
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