Football Betting Trends

December 1, 2010 NFL Football

Football betting trends are one of the most popular handicapping tools.

The problem with trends for gamblers that bet football is that they are overrated. Let’s look at football betting trends.

Football betting using trends is based on using past history to predict future events. The problem with using trends as you bet football is that they are based on the past. We can all learn from history, and history can serve as a reliable guide to what will happen in the future, but it is not always the best guide. Beyond that, there is an even bigger problem with trend handicapping when you bet football. The football betting oddsmakers know all of the trends and adjust the gambling lines in anticipation of how the football betting public will react to them.

For example, if the home team in a game has covered ten consecutive games at home and five consecutive games over their opponent as the host, the oddsmakers are going to know that the football betting public is on to that trend and, as a result, will over-charge gamblers for the privilege of taking that home team, making the visitor a value-added play.

Another fact of life in football betting is that trends eventually reverse themselves. All you have to do is study the records of various teams over the years and you will find that if they had a good season or two as a home favorite that the trend eventually corrects itself over time due to oddsmaker adjustments on the prices in relation to consumer demand.

Ultimately, the biggest problem with trend handicapping as you bet football is that it is reactive in nature, as it is based in direct reaction to things that happened in the past compared to what is happening now. You must remember in football betting that players and coaches will change. So do systems and league rules. All of that adds up to the one constant about football betting, if not sports in general, which is change. And past trends do not have any relation to current change.

While trend handicapping in football betting is a decent guide it is not and should never be considered gospel. Trends are just one of many ingredients that should go into the final wagering decision in football betting.

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