Big NFL Betting Odds Don’t Always Win

December 1, 2010 NFL Football

NFL betting odds don’t give you any guarantees. Laying big numbers in terms of NFL odds does not mean you will cover the spread.

In the early part of the 2008 NFL season the big underdogs were doing very well versus the NFL betting odds

NFL betting odds are always shaded toward big favorites.  That is a fact because the public loves betting favorites in NFL betting odds.  Normally when you look at NFL odds your first inclination is to take the favorite.  That is not what your first thought should be though.  You really should look to take the underdog in NFL betting odds.  The value is almost always with taking the points in NFL odds.  That doesn’t mean you will win though.  Looking back at history we saw that early in the season the big underdogs in 2007 and 2006 did not make money versus the NFL betting odds. In 2008 everything turned around though and big dogs were making money against the NFL betting odds.

What has made big underdogs a bit more profitable in 2008 has been poor performances out of teams like San Diego and Jacksonville.  Both teams were expected to contend for the playoffs in 2008 and it looks like both teams will miss out.  It also helps the underdogs chances in 2008 that there is not a dominant team like there was in 2007 with the Patriots.

Taking big underdogs in NFL betting odds is not easy to do.  Sometimes you have to hold your nose and make the bet.  Teams like Detroit, Oakland, Seattle and Kansas City have really struggled this season.  That does not mean they can’t occasionally be good teams to bet though. The Chiefs started 1-10 straight up but they had five wins against the NFL betting odds.

NFL odds will give you a lot of chances each season to take the big points.  Some seasons the underdogs are profitable versus the NFL betting odds and some years they are not.  Overall though, the underdogs are usually the way to go versus the NFL betting odds, particularly big underdogs.
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