Picking the Champion in Final Four Betting

December 1, 2010 NCAA Basketball

Final Four betting is all about picking the champion. How do you pick the winners of the two Final Four games?

How do you determine which teams will make it to the title game in Final Four odds?  Let’s look at some numbers that can help.

Final Four betting usually has a champion that means certain criterion. In fact, the last six winners of the NCAA Championship and eight of the last nine have certain things they do well.  The ultimate winner will probably be a team that is a one, two, three or four seed.  This is a year where they have been some upsets but that doesn’t mean a highly seeded team won’t win it all.

You really want a team that can score when you are picking the winner in Final Four betting.  They should have averaged more than 77 point per game this season. Heading into the Sweet Sixteen there were just five teams remaining that averaged more than 77 points per game this season. They were Kentucky, Duke, Kansas State, Xavier, Baylor and St. Mary’s.  In addition to scoring points the ultimate winner will be a team that doesn’t allow more than 76 points per game.   All of those six teams met that criterion this season.  The ultimate winner as mentioned previously will be a team seeded one through four.  That would eliminate Xavier who is a six seed and St. Mary’s who is seeded tenth.   That leaves Kentucky, Duke, Kansas State and Baylor.  Usually the ultimate winner will have gone to the NCAA Tournament the previous season and if that trend holds true that would eliminate Kentucky, Kansas State and Baylor.  Duke would be the team under those criteria that would be the ultimate champ.

Only twice in recent years has a champion not met those qualifications.  Arizona won it is 1997 and Kentucky won it is 1998.  If you want to open it up a little bit more in Final Four odds then you look only at teams seeded one through four, went to the NCAA Tourney last year, have a coach with more than four trips to the tourney and at least one appearance in the Elite Eight and they are part of a power conference (Big 10, ACC, Big East, SEC, Big 12, Pac-10). Those criteria bring Michigan State, West Virginia and Ohio State into the picture.

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