Higher Seeds Do Well in Final Four Odds

December 1, 2010 NCAA Basketball

Final Four odds point to the higher seeded teams doing well this weekend.

Last year in Final Four betting the top seeds split with North Carolina beating Villanova while Connecticut lost to Michigan State. The Tar Heels won the championship in Final Four betting as they routed the Spartans.

Final Four odds since 1998 indicate that the top seeds are 19-9. There will be some occasions in the Final Four where the seeds are equal. For example, you could have two #1 seeds meeting, two #2’s, etc. Normally when the higher seeded team wins they also cover the spread.

The best teams to take in Final Four odds are those that are favored by three to seven and a half points as they are hitting about 75% in the last decade.  Teams that you want to avoid in the Final Four are those that are seeded fourth or worse. That didn’t occur last year but since 1999, those teams are 1-8 straight up and against the spread. Top seeded teams do very well in Final Four betting.  When they are matched up against lower seeded teams they are 14-5 straight up and against the spread in the last 12 years.

The conference that has done the best in Final Four odds recently has been the ACC. They have simply excellent in the Final Four. North Carolina increased those numbers last year with two wins.  The Big East has also been solid if they get to the Final Four.

If you are looking to play the underdog in Final Four odds you may want to consider them on the money line as well. If the favorite doesn’t cover the spread they oftentimes don’t win the game.  This is similar in many respects to the Super Bowl.  If you are going to take the underdog then you take them on the money line as well.  Michigan State pulled off the underdog win on the money line a year ago in the Final Four. They did not do so though in the title game against the Tar Heels.

Picking Final Four betting winners should have you focusing on the higher seeded teams but as we have indicated, underdogs have a chance to win outright.  It also helps if you pick teams that have had success on the road this season.  Rarely do teams win in the Final Four if they could not find a way to win on the road during the regular season.

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInShare on TumblrPin on PinterestEmail this to someone
To the Top