Five Things that Qualify a March Madness Winner

December 1, 2010 NCAA Basketball

March Madness betting will have one team winning it all in a few weeks in the NCAA Tournament.

If you want to predict that team in March Madness odds there are five things that team is likely to have. Let’s take a look at those five.

March Madness betting is almost assuredly going to have a champion that has an experienced coach.  The winning coach will have at least five years of NCAA Tournament experience and he will have made the Elite Eight at least once.  In fact, you can pretty much bank on an experienced coach since only three teams in recent history has a coach not had that resume.  Steve Fisher won it with Michigan in 1989 with players that really came from the previous regime.  Tubby Smith won it all in 1998 and Tom Izzo won it with Michigan State in 2000. 

If you are looking for a newcomer to win the NCAA Tournament you can forget about it.  The winner in March Madness betting will have been in last year’s tournament. Only once in the last 25 years did the winning team not play in the previous year’s tournament. That team was Syracuse in 2003 and that was simply an aberration.

You might be rooting for the mid-majors in March Madness odds but they are not going to win it all. The winner will be a team from a major conference.  You have to go back to 1990 for the last time a team came from a conference outside of the major ones.  Louisville and UNLV are the only previous winners from a conference that was not one of the big six.  Remember those big six conferences are the Big East, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, Pac-10 and SEC. 

Another quality of the ultimate winner of the NCAA Tournament is that they will be a high seed.  Look at the top four seeds in each region. The winner of the NCAA Tournament is going to be one of those teams. Only two teams have won the title with lower seeds. Kansas won as a #6 in 1988 and Villanova won as a number eight seed many years ago when they upset Georgetown.

The final quality of the winning team will be that they score at least 77 points per game and win by more than 10 points per game.  

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