MLB Betting Odds in 2019

Challenge of Parity Remains Paramount with MLB Betting Odds

January 6, 2019 MLB Baseball, Sportsbook

On the whole this has been one of the most challenging eras for handicapping the MLB betting odds.  By contrast to a generation ago there are no dynasties.  Instead there is a level of parity and opportunity unsurpassed in the history of baseball.  In fact, last year’s championship by the Boston Red Sox was the fifth different franchise in five seasons to win it all.  Further, the last repeat champion of the World Series was the New York Yankees from 1998-2000.  A clear difference between those days and now is a much more even playing field.

One of the great challenges with the MLB betting odds is also its greatest opportunity.  Consider the marathon season that runs from late March through the end of October.  For a six-month period, there are nearly daily lists of 15 games on the board to handicap.  In comparison there is no other sport that offers this much daily action.  To some, the MLB season is a grind that can be exhausting.  Yet to others it’s the sport of opportunity.  With that in mind no other sport is more demanding of gamblers as far as discipline.

Certainly, Boston was something of a surprise champion last year.  Although one of the strongest franchises on the sportsbook online board, they have often flopped in the post season.  As a matter of fact, that is why then first year manager Alex Cora took over the reins.  And the rookie skipper led the Bosox to the best record in baseball and a World Series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In view of the Dodgers losing two World Series in the last two years it has been a bittersweet era in LA.  Take the case of the 2017 season when they had the best record baseball.  Additionally, they were among the biggest money winners in the first five months of that season.  But since September of that season Dodger Blue has been associated with red ink.  To illuminate LA demonstrates the ultimate importance of wagering value.   Last year the Dodgers record was 92-71 but they lost a staggering -2283 units.  Too many gamblers paid too much on LA.

In comparison the Milwaukee Brewers are a great example of value with the MLB betting odds. Milwaukee finished slightly better than Los Angeles at 96-67.  But the Crew was a cash cow with +2314 units on the season.  In contrast the Brewers are no where nearly as popular as the Dodgers.  Thus, the public did not bet down Milwaukee’s value as they did with LA.

Yet another pair of teams with terrible value last year were the Washington Nationals and New York Yankees.  Washington was a perennial playoff contender that finished 82-80 while losing -2489 units.  Likewise, the Yankees are one of the most popular teams on the board in any sport.  And they were quite successful last year with a record of 100-62.  Another overlay was the Cleveland Indians with a record of 91-71.  However, the Tribe lost a whopping -2487 units.

In sum the public mentality with the baseball wagering board has a great deal of influence on overall betting value.  Extending that is the willingness to bet on less popular teams to get superior wagering value.  On the whole the public will pound the most popular teams.  More emphatically they continue to overpay for “name brand” teams.

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