Baseball Odds Traps

May 7th, 2024 Betting on MLB Baseball

Baseball odds gamblers usually tend to be smarter and wiser than players in other sports. They usually concentrate and focus more so than football and basketball bettors, simply for the fact that not as many new players bet MLB odds. Very often players that bet baseball betting lines are professionals, or well known and respected players that take baseball betting lines very seriously but even these players fall into traps during the season.

MLB odds betting has a big trap called the “due theory.” Every single bettor at one time or another has fallen into this trap and it really applies in baseball betting lines because there are so many games. A team may have lost a few games in a row but you think they are due for a win in MLB odds betting. You see it all the time with good teams like the Cardinals, Yankees, White Sox or Red Sox. If these teams have lost a few games in a row the due theory rears its ugly head and everyone wants to bet on these teams because they think the losing streak can’t continue in baseball odds. Streaks are unpredictable and can get the player wagering against baseball betting lines into all kinds of trouble.

This due theory can also apply to pitchers in baseball odds. If a stud pitcher has lost his last couple of starts most people will believe he is due to win. When these pitchers are up against poor teams the price automatically jumps on the stud pitcher because everyone figures he is due to win. That can be a real problem for the MLB odds betting player that backs this team. The stud pitcher could also have a losing streak that a weak team at home, and installed as massive prohibitive favorites on the baseball odds board, many otherwise intelligent baseball odds betting players will plunk down big cash on these pitchers getting their teams back into the win column.

Another aspect of the due theory is when a weak team puts together one of their rare winning streaks and baseball odds betting players jump on board against this team thinking the streak will end. In this occasion the player is betting against a streak continuing in the opposite direction. It is still a due theory, just a theory that the bad team can’t continue to win when betting MLB odds.

The main problem with the due theory is that sportsbooks also know that things are due to turn around and adjust the baseball odds accordingly making it very dangerous to keep bucking a streak for very long.


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