A team can have a winning record straight up but if they don’t have a winning record against the NFL lines it means nothing. One team that fits that description is the Denver Broncos.
NFL odds numbers have the Broncos as one of the worst teams in the NFL even though they have a winning record straight up. Through 11 games the Broncos were 6-5 straight up but 3-7-1 against the NFL lines. That pretty much guarantees Denver another losing record against the NFL odds. Mike Shanahan’s teams seem to get a lot more respect in the NFL lines than they deserve, especially at home. Denver has had an exciting offense in recent seasons with quarterback Jay Cutler but their defense has been awful. Anytime you are wagering on NFL odds you really have to worry if you are betting on a team that can’t stop their opponent.
NFL odds have the Broncos ranked in the Top 5 in offense but in the bottom five on defense. That makes for exciting games but it does not necessarily translate into wins versus the NFL odds. It would make sense that NFL odds makers would start to adjust the NFL lines on Denver games but that really has not been the case. The Broncos were favored in NFL odds in eight of their first eleven games despite having one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Denver is a perfect example of a straight up mentality. Many gamblers don’t even bother to look at the NFL odds before making an NFL wager. They believe that if a team wins a game they will cover the NFL odds. This type of mentality is one reason that you see high pointspreads on teams that really don’t deserve them. Denver has shown that just because a team can win a game straight up does not mean they will cover the NFL odds. That is just something to think about as you bet the NFL this season.
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