Trends and stats are really all you have to consider when you make a Kentucky Derby bet. Some of these trends and stats are important while others are not.
Kentucky Derby bet trends that are important surround recent form. Unless a horse has run well recently he is unlikely to be the winner in Kentucky Derby odds. Usually a horse also has to have experience to be a good wager in Kentucky Derby bet odds although Big Brown broke that trend last year as he had raced only three times previously. It is very unlikely that another horse will do what Big Brown did last year and win with very little experience in Kentucky Derby odds.
Another Kentucky Derby bet factor that has been important is experience on the dirt. Rarely does a horse win if he has not raced on the dirt previously. This trend will probably change soon though since more tracks are going to synthetics. California horses that have transferred to Kentucky without having run on the dirt have not done well in the past but Kentucky Derby bet trends have been known to change and perhaps this is the year they will.
As you look at the past performances before making a Kentucky Derby bet look for horses that have run in big fields before. Rarely does a horse adjust well to a big field if he has always been facing smaller field. The crowded conditions and the traffic are major problems for horses that have not handled it in the past.
Another huge factor to consider when making a Kentucky Derby bet is the speed factor. You have to look at horses that have received at least one 100 speed rating and preferably more as you make a Kentucky Derby bet. If you see a horse in the past performances that doesn’t have at least one rating of 100 in previous races then throw the horse out as you make your Kentucky Derby bet. History is monumentally against that horse in Kentucky Derby odds.
Those are just a few of the many Kentucky Derby bet trends to consider this year. Many of them will change over time but the speed factor has proven reliable as his experience. Look for a horse that comes into the Derby with excellent Beyer speed numbers and a lot of recent experience.
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