Some experts claim that the Dosage Index is the biggest part of handicapping Kentucky Derby Odds. So what is the Dosage Index and is it that important in Kentucky Derby Betting?
Kentucky Derby Betting is exciting because so many horses are on the field. Usually 15-20 horses are listed on the Kentucky Derby Odds board. This makes handicapping somewhat challenging. As we mentioned, the Dosage Index is a tool that some handicappers use in Kentucky Derby Betting. The Dosage System was introduced by Dr. Steve Roman as a tool to use in Kentucky Derby Betting. He gives a number to the male ancestors in a horses’ pedigree that is supposed to represent how well a horse should run going a longer distance. Dosage numbers that are high indicate that a horse should do well at shorter distances while a low dosage number says that should like distance. The Dosage number was a very important of Kentucky Derby Betting for a long time but during the last decade it has become very overrated. Before 1991 there was rarely any horse that won the Derby with a Dosage number higher than 4.00. That theory was challenge in 1991. That was the year that Strike the Gold won the Derby with a Dosage that was higher than 5.00. Later the entire Kentucky Derby Betting system was under attack as Strike the Gold was given a different rating based on Alydar being reclassified. This has made the Dosage Index less important in Kentucky Derby Betting. It should also be noted that in Kentucky Derby Betting, three horses with Dosage numbers over 4.00 have won the Derby in the past decade or so with Real Quiet, Charismatic and Giacamo getting victories versus Kentucky Derby Odds.
The problem with the Dosage Index is that it has been tinkered with and adjusted so much that it has lost meaning in Kentucky Derby Betting. Dr. Roman adjusted the system to make it a ‘Dual-Qualifier’ system and that hasn’t done that well either as Winning Colors and Sunday Silence have won without being Dual Qualifiers in Kentucky Derby Odds. In fact, since 1990 there have only been five Dual Qualifiers that have won the Derby and none of those Kentucky Derby Betting winners have been recent.