It used to be that making a Kentucky Derby bet on the favorite was a serious no-no when it came to Kentucky Derby odds but the last two years the favorites have won. What will happen this year with Kentucky Derby bet trends?
Kentucky Derby bet trends really started to turn around in 2006 when Barbaro became the first horse to win the Derby off a five-or-more week layoff in 50 years. The next year it was Street Sense becoming the first Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to win the Derby. He also only had two starts at age three, the first time a horse had done that and won in Kentucky Derby bet history since Sunny Halo.
The favorites used to be the way to losing money when making a Kentucky Derby bet but in 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus was the winner and the favorite also won in 2004, 2007 and 2008. Kentucky Derby bet trends were bucked in 2002 when War Emblem led at every call. He was the first horse to achieve that in Kentucky Derby bet history since Winning Colors in 1988. Funny Cide won in 2003 and was the first gelding to win since 1929.
Smarty Jones bucked a lot of trends when he was the Kentucky Derby bet winner in 2004. He became the first Arkansas Derby winner to win the Derby in 21 years and he was the first unbeaten Derby winner since Seattle Slew in 1977.
In 2005 it was Giacomo becoming the second-highest paying winner in Kentucky Derby betting history. Last year it was Big Brown bucking Kentucky Derby bet history as he was the first Derby winner in 93 years to win off only three career starts.
What will happen to buck the Kentucky Derby bet trends this year. Dunkirk does not have a start at age two and if he wins he would be the first since Apollo won more than 100 years ago.
History could be bucked if the horse on the rail wins in Kentucky Derby betting considering that has not happened in 23 years.
Trends are interesting to look at in all sports including the Kentucky Derby but they don’t always hold true. This year could be yet another year when bucking the trends proves profitable.
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