Winning the Close Games in March Madness

December 1, 2010 NCAA Basketball

March Madness odds are going to have a lot of games with close point spreads. How do you go about picking these games that could go either way in March Madness betting?

March Madness odds have three types of games for you to consider. You have the expected slaughters, the solid favorites and the games that could go either way.  When you look at the 1 vs. 16 and the 2 vs. 15 matchups you are going to pick the top seeds to win and most of the time you will pick them to cover the March Madness odds.

The next group of games is the mismatch games where you still have teams expected to win.  You are likely to pick the #3 and #4 seeds as well in March Madness betting. It is when you get to the 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 games that things become dicey. It is these games that will decide whether you win or lose in March Madness odds so you need to pick them well.

You can’t just look at the seeds and predict a winner.  It doesn’t work well enough to make you any money.  It used to be that you could simply pick the #12 seeds against the #5 seeds and win every year.  It doesn’t always work as well now though since the public and the oddsmakers immediately go to the #12 seeds.  The #11 seeds might actually be a better way to go as they are less well known.

When you get to the 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 matchups you really have toss up games.  The higher seed has won these games just 53.5% of the time in the last 25 years. You really need to look at more than just the seeding.  What you want is a team that is averaging more than 76.5 points per game. That should narrow your choices down a good bit. You should also look for a team that has been to the tourney in consecutive years.  This might end up being more than just a couple times in a row.  You also want to avoid teams that are coming into the tourney with two or more losses in a row. Another good stat to look at is points per game. Look to take any team that is averaging more than five points more than their opponent. Scoring margin fits right into this category as well. Keep some of these things in mind as you look at the March Madness odds next week.

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