NFL Wild Card Playoff Dolphins vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis & Picks (01/14/2024)

NFL Wild Card Playoff Dolphins vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis & Picks (01/14/2024)

The Miami Dolphins had the AFC East title in hand, only to blow it by losing their final two games. Now Miami must hit the road to play the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Chiefs indeed had a disappointing season with the NFL betting odds. Kansas City was accused of being too focused on commercials, celebrity lovers, and off-the-field endeavors. But nobody doubts the Chiefs’ ability and championship pedigree. Most important of all, Kansas City has one of the best defenses in football.

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Information

Date and Time:Sunday, January 14, 2024, 8 p.m. ET
Location:GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
TV Coverage:Peacock
Odds at SBG Sportsbook
Dolphins+3½ -11044 -110+155
Chiefs-3½ -11044 -110-185
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Miami Dolphins Team Overview

Last game, the Miami Dolphins lost 21-14 against the Buffalo Bills as 2.5-point home dogs. The game went under the total of 47.5. Miami has a record of 11-6 straight up, 10-7 against the spread, and 9-8 over/under the total. Miami ranks 1st for total offense, 1st for passing, 6th for rushing, and 2nd for scoring. Defensively, they rank 10th overall, 10th against the pass, 7th against the rush, and 22nd for points allowed. Also, Miami ranks 22nd for the fewest turnovers lost and 11th for takeaways.

Of major concern remains the injury woes of the Dolphins. RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle missed the sports betting against Buffalo. Miami’s injury list remains a long one, and the status of key players may not be known until kickoff. Late on, the Dolphins failed to cover three of their final five games, blowing the AFC East in the process.

Finally, Tua Tagovailoa was able to stay healthy for an entire season. Tua had the best campaign of his career with a 101.1 QBR and a 129/14 TD/INT ratio with 4624 yards passing.

Naturally, the Dolphins need Mostert to return to the lineup. He rushed for 1012 yards, 4.8 YPC, and 18 TDs this season. Former Chiefs star Tyreek Hill caught 119 passes for 1799 yards, 15.1 YPC and 13 TDs. Hill vs. the tight Chiefs defense makes for a key matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Team Overview

Last game, the Kansas City Chiefs won 13-12 against the LA Chargers as 3-point road dogs. The game went under the total of 35.5. Kansas City has a record of 11-6 straight up, 9-8 against the spread, and 5-12 over/under the total. Kansas City ranks 9th for total offense, 6th for passing, 19th for rushing, and 15th for scoring. Defensively, they rank 2nd overall, 4th against the pass, 18th against the rush, and 2nd for points allowed. Also, Kansas City ranks 26th for the fewest turnovers lost and 25th for takeaways.

With the AFC West already clinched, the Chiefs rested QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, and several other starters against the Chargers. Following a rough stretch of four consecutive losses to the odds, Kansas City covered its final two games.

Of great concern was the subpar season by Chiefs offense and Mahomes. Mahomes slipped to a 92.6 QBR with an alarming 27/14 TD/INT ratio with 4183 yards. Much of the blame was placed on the lack of a reliable game-breaking wide receiver. Too much of the burden was placed on Kelce, who caught 93 passes for 984 yards and five TDs. Mahomes does not trust his wide receivers, who consistently drop passes and blow routes. Namely, RB Isiah Pacheco became more of a factor with 935 yards and 4.6 yards per rush with seven TDs.

Dolphins at Chiefs SBG Free Picks

On this occasion, the Chiefs have the superior defense. Miami’s injury issues remain a Pro football Bets liability.

Dolphins at Chiefs SBG Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs.

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