2010 Preakness odds don’t have as many horses on the board as in the Kentucky Derby so finding value can sometimes be difficult. The favorite wins in Preakness States betting almost half the time, so that means you sometimes have to be creative to find value.
2010 Preakness odds are likely to list the Kentucky Derby winner as the favorite. Betting on favorites is not normally the way to find value in a race. In the Preakness you sometimes don’t have much choice. In regular horse races the favorite wins about a third of the time. In the Preakness the favorite wins almost half the time. It happened again last year when Rachel Alexandra won as the favorite in the Preakness. Looking for value in the Preakness Stakes is tougher than in other races. Normally, value occurs when the public misses something.
They might have missed a big jockey change or a trainer change or something else. They might think that a previous horse race was better than it was or they might handicap a race poorly. The problem with all of these things in the Preakness is that they don’t matter as much because the favorite wins so often. And the public bets the favorite, period. That means the public is going to win almost half the time in this race and that makes finding value tough but it doesn’t mean that it can’t be done.
What you have to do with Preakness Stakes betting is look at the exacta, trifecta and superfecta. You can take the favorite and box him with three or four other likely contenders in your exotic wagers. If he wins then you may be able to get some value on the exotics. That is really the only way to find value in the Preakness unless you go against the favorite. History has shown that is not the way to go. Keep in mind that since the favorite wins so much that the normal equation for looking for value doesn’t apply. But you must include the favorite as you handicap the 2010 Preakness odds. To leave the favorite out is not smart so he has to be factored into your betting plan. You don’t necessarily have to bet the horse to win but you must include him in your exotics unless you have a very strong reason not to.