Preakness Stakes line odds for the 2009 Preakness Stakes resemble the 2005 Preakness betting odds more than any other recent years. In 2005 it was Giacomo winning the Kentucky Derby and then going off as the fourth choice on the Preakness line. The same thing could happen in 2009 with Mine That Bird in Preakness Stakes betting.
Preakness line odds are not going to favor Mine That Bird in the Preakness. Horses just don’t go from 50-1 to the favorite in their next race when that next race is the Preakness. Giacomo in 2005 was 6-1 on the Preakness Stakes line. That could be the case with Mine That Bird with the 2009 Preakness line.
Some people that look at the Preakness Stakes betting line may believe that Mine That Bird is really good and has a chance to win the Preakness but history doesn’t support them. Horses don’t win the Triple Crown without some serious talent and Mine That Bird has never shown much until a dream ride on a sloppy track in the Kentucky Derby. Mine That Bird was not even expected to hit the board in the Derby by anyone including his trainer. How will a horse like that do against the Preakness line? History says not very well.
The only horse that went off at Kentucky Derby odds of more than 20-1 and then was the Preakness line favorite was War Emblem in 2002. Charismatic went off at more than 30-1 in the Derby and was not favored in the Preakness Stakes line although he did win. Thunder Gulch in 1995 won the Derby at odds of 24-1 but was not the favorite in Preakness betting and didn’t win. Gato Del Sol won the Derby at odds of 21-1 and then failed in the Preakness. And all of those horses were 30-1 or less while Mine That Bird was 50-1.
It is very possible that Kentucky Derby second place finisher, Pioneerof the Nile will be the favorite on the Preakness Stakes line. Third place finisher Musket Man and fourth place finisher Papa Clem could have similar Preakness odds to Mine That Bird. Another possible favorite on the Preakness Stakes line is Kentucky Derby favorite Friesan Fire who had all kinds of trouble in the Derby. The question though is whether or not Friesan Fire will even run after being scraped up pretty good in the Derby.
The Preakness Stakes line won’t be what it has been in the past few years with the Derby winner favored but it still should be interesting.
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