The horrible nightmare of the 2024 Florida State Seminoles. Following their ACC title in 2023, Florida State never recovered and completely collapsed in 2024. As a result of that College Football lines catastrophe, Florida State head coach Mike Norvell made significant changes to his staff and in the transfer portal. At the onset of the season, the Seminoles upset the Alabama Crimson Tide to announce to the country that they are back. This week brings a tricky road game at the Virginia Cavaliers. So far, Virginia appears to be an improved program.
Florida State Seminoles at Virginia Cavaliers
| Date and Time: | Friday, September 26, 2025, 7 p.m. ET |
|---|---|
| Location: | Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA |
| TV Coverage: | ESPN |
| Team | Spread | Total | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | -7 ( -110 ) | 58 ( -115 ) | -285 |  |
| Virginia | +7 ( -110 ) | 58 ( -105 ) | +234 | |
| ||||
Florida State Seminoles Team Overview
Last week, the Florida State Seminoles won 66-10 against the Kent State Golden Flashes as 45-point home favorites. The game went over the Online wagering total of 56.6. As a result, Florida State is 3-0 straight up, against the spread, and over the total.
Overall, Florida State ranks 1st for total offense and scoring. The Noles rank 2nd for rushing offense. By contrast, Florida State ranks 21st for total offense and 12th for fewest points allowed.
No. 7 Florida State set program records with eight rushing touchdowns and 498 rushing yards. Correlate they obliterated Kent State in a win Saturday in Tallahassee, Fla. At the beginning, the Seminoles got off to a roaring start for the second straight game against overmatched competition. They racked up 356 yards over the opening 15 minutes. At the same time, they scored rushing touchdowns on each of their five possessions that quarter, tying a program record with 35 first-quarter points.
Namely, Quarterback Tommy Castellanos and running back Gavin Sawchuk had two of those scores each. Additionally, Micahi Danzy added another on a 64-yard reverse.
Consider that FSU finished with 775 yards of offense. That marks the second straight week the Seminoles surpassed 700 yards after previously not having done so since 2000. They averaged a gaudy 9.9 yards per play.
Virginia Cavaliers Team Overview
Last week, the Virginia Cavaliers won 48-20 against the Stanford Cardinal as 16.5-point home favorites. The game went over the total of 48. Now, Virginia is 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the spread, and 4-0 over the total.
To summarize, Virginia has national metrics of 5th for total offense and 11th for scoring. The Cavaliers rank 43rd for total defense and 47th for fewest points allowed.
Chandler Morris threw three first-quarter touchdown passes to Trell Harris to spark Virginia’s victory against Stanford Saturday night in Charlottesville, Va.
Overall, Morris passed for a season-high 380 yards and four TDs, and he ran for a score. Harris finished with four catches for a career-high 145 yards for the Cavaliers in their inaugural meeting with the Cardinal.
Also, Ben Gulbranson threw for 286 yards and two scores. Bryce Farrell caught four passes for 135 yards and a TD, and C.J. Williams added 103 yards on nine grabs. Consider that Harris entered the night with a career total of four touchdowns in 26 games at Virginia and Kent State (2022-23). A week after racking up a school-record 700 yards against William & Mary, Virginia outgained Stanford 590-321.
Florida State at Virginia Betting Trends
Florida State has been a reliable road betting value with ten payouts in its last 15 games in that role. Also, Florida State went under the total in 13 of their most recent 19 away games.
By contrast, Virginia has been in the black at home. The Cavaliers covered the spread in 11 of their most recent 17 home games. Virginia went under the total in six of their previous eight home games.
In the series between Virginia and Florida State, the Seminoles covered only three of the last nine meetings. Also, nine of the last ten games between Virginia and Florida State have gone under the total.
Specifically in Virginia, the Cavaliers covered only two of their most recent six home games against the Seminoles. Florida State and Virginia went under the total in five of their last six meetings at Virginia.
Florida State at Virginia SBG Free Picks
In this situation, Florida State offers more CFB odds value as a power program with a road team discount.
Florida State at Virginia SBG Best Bet: Florida State Seminoles