NFL betting lines dwarfs all other types of sports betting for one main reason; the public is heavily involved.
In other sports like basketball or baseball, the public factor is not nearly so heavy in NFL betting lines. If you don’t know by now, most people like to bet favorites instead of underdogs, and that is particularly true in the NFL betting lines.
Why do people bet the favorite instead of the underdog when it comes to football betting? I think it comes down to human nature. We always want to take the better team, and the better team is usually favored in NFL lines. The problem with this type of thinking is that the favorite doesn’t always cover the spread. In fact, NFL betting lines favorites have traditionally been a poor bet throughout the years.
Since we know that taking football betting favorites is not the way to go, should we bet all the dogs? The answer is no. You can’t just blindly do anything without something to back it up. We want to remember though that looking to bet the underdog first is a good handicapping tip. Were you aware that over two thirds of the public money bet on an NFL game is on the favorite? Usually that means the underdog is an attractive bet because the one who makes the NFL betting lines is going to make you pay extra to take the favorite. Sportsbooks are not stupid.
They know the public likes betting favorites in NFL betting lines and they make you pay a little extra to do so. For example, if you like New England against Miami and the Patriots should be a 6 point favorite, the sportsbook may have set NFL betting lines at –7 just because he knows the favorite will be heavily bet. That doesn’t mean New England should be a touchdown favorite, it just means he wants to make bettors that take the favorite take an unfavorable number. The point is they will do it anyway. The public doesn’t care about numbers, they just bet favorites hand over fist regardless of the number.
If you remember nothing else about football betting, remember this: NFL underdogs have been profitable over the long-term in NFL betting lines. If you can get it out of your head to take the favorite every time you look at NFL betting lines, you have already improved your chances of success this NFL season. I know that taking the dog is not always easy, particularly the ugly dogs, but remember they very often cover the spread in NFL betting lines. Look for reasons to take the dog in the NFL and you will be pleasantly surprised at your results.
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