Trends for Week 1 NFL Preseason Odds

December 1, 2010 NFL Football

Now is the time to consider trends for Week 1 of NFL preseason odds. And yes, there have been some definite trends in the first week of NFL preseason betting.

You might think that the preseason is unpredictable but history has shown that certain things do happen over and over again.

NFL preseason odds for Week 1 begin with Thursday’s action.  The first thing to remember about the first week of the preseason is that laying points is very risky.  The next thing to keep in mind is that games are usually low scoring.  You can forget about any of last season’s stats and results. The regular season means nothing when it comes to the preseason.  In the first week the starters play only a series or two so it is all about the backups.  Teams with strong quarterback rotations usually do well in the preseason.

When you start to get specific for trends in NFL preseason odds for the first week you start with underdogs and road teams.  Overall, road teams have won just enough to be profitable since 2000.  Underdogs have also done well, particularly big underdogs.  Teams getting four points or more have hit at more than 70% since 2000.  Underdogs of less than four points are still over 56% so taking every dog in Week 1 is not a bad way to go.  The Hall of Fame Game is not included in Week 1 since the Cowboys and Bengals still have four more games to go.  The Cowboys stayed right with the trends though as they won and covered against the Bengals as underdogs in the Hall of Fame Game.

If you can get a home underdog in Week 1 then you really have a team to look at. They are over 60% since 2000. Teams that are home underdogs this season in Week 1 preseason odds are Indianapolis who is a three-point home dog to San Francisco on Sunday. The other team that is a home dog is the Arizona Cardinals who are a one-point dog to Houston on Saturday.

If you are looking at totals in Week 1 NFL preseason betting, keep in mind that unders hit at over 57% in Week 1.  Low totals are even better to take under as games with a total of 33.5 or less hit over 67% of the time.

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