Super Bowl wagering and handicapping is definitely different than regular season betting and handicapping.
Super bowl odds are the most popular of the betting odds each year and they have a unique dynamic to them. Let’s look at some handicapping factors to consider in Super Bowl wagering.
Super Bowl wagering lines are not set as regular season lines are set. The
Super Bowl odds are set in anticipation of how the public is likely to bet. Remember that with Super Bowl wagering there is only one game to wager on. Yes, there are multiple options, but it is still just a single game. Super Bowl odds are made to appeal to the public, not the wiseguys. In fact, over 90% of Super Bowl wagering money comes from the general public.
Normally the public is going to bet the favorite and the over in Super Bowl wagering. That is not always the case, but normally it is. Last year’s Super Bowl wagering actually had the public taking the New York Giants as underdogs against New England but that is an exception, not the rule. Since the public normally bets the favorite and the over in Super Bowl wagering, the Super Bowl odds are set higher than they should be on the favorite and the over.
As you handicap Super Bowl wagering odds you should begin with the underdog. That team might not win but that is where the value will be in Super Bowl wagering. Actually, favorites have done slightly better than underdogs in Super Bowl wagering history. The over has been a decent wager as well. Since 1983 the favorite and the over has come in together a total of 10 times. Parlaying those two has been popular although in the last four years the parlay has lost since the last four Super Bowls have gone under the Super Bowl wagering total.
If you are going to bet the favorite you probably want to bet the team early in Super Bowl wagering. If you like the dog you might want to wait until just before kickoff. Normally the same rules apply to the total as you bet the over early and the under late.
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