Super Bowl betting value is a tricky thing. Sometimes value can be found where you might not expect it.The Super Bowl value for Super Bowl XLII between the New England Patriots and New York Giants is actually on the Patriots.
Super Bowl value is all about finding a better price than you should be getting. In Super Bowl XLII that value is on New England. Let’s see why that is the case. Superbowl betting odds have the Patriots about a 12 point favorite against the Giants. There is no real value in the pointspread but you can find Super Bowl betting value if you look at the money line. This is where you bet on one of the two teams to win the game, no pointspread involved. The consensus Super Bowl betting money line has New England at about -430 and the Giants at +350 or so. That Super Bowl betting money line is not what it should be.
In a normal NFL game where a team was favored by 12 points the money line would have the favored team at -700 or more. The Super Bowl money line on the Patriots is just over -400. Why the huge discrepancy? It is because the game is the Super Bowl. Gamblers want to take a shot with the underdog on the money line in Superbowl betting. They don’t care about value. The true value in Super Bowl betting on Super Bowl XLII is with the Patriots on the money line. When you can get -430 or so instead of -700 there is tremendous value in Super Bowl betting. Will most gamblers see it this way? No.
Super Bowl betting is all about the public playing the game. Casual fans want to have action and they see a +350 or +360 on New York as an attractive wager in Superbowl betting. It is not a good wager though. The real money line on New York should be at least +600. A money line wager on New York is actually a bad value bet in Super Bowl betting while a money line wager on New England is a great value bet. If you are looking for value in Superbowl betting this year then consider taking New England on the money line.