NFL odds are really quite predictable. The public influences football odds, especially NFL odds, more than any other type of sports betting odds and the public is very predictable.
There are only 16 games or less each weekend to choose from when it comes to NFL odds, but that doesn’t stop the public from being heavily involved.
NFL odds will have marquee teams favored most of the time. The public is going to go with the high profile teams, and if they can’t go with a marquee team, they are likely to bet the biggest favorite on the NFL odds board. How predictable is the public when it comes to NFL odds? Let’s look at a few examples. Let’s say in November or December when the weather is cold and nasty you know that the public is going to tend to bet the cold weather games under the total. The oddsmakers will normally shade the totals toward the unders simply for the fact that they know the public will bet them. The same type of thing happens when it comes to NFL odds makers shading favorites in the NFL. They know that the public will tend to bet favorites in NFL odds and they shade them accordingly. This type of line shading goes on every week in NFL odds. If you think about it there are not as many games for the public to choose from when it comes to NFL odds, so they concentrate on the marquee games with the high profile teams.
As you look at football odds this season keep in mind that the public has much more of an influence on the betting line than you might think. The wise guys have their effect, but the public has more. When the public gets it into their head to bet a side it doesn’t matter what the wise guys do. This is the only time in betting where the public will have more of an influence than the wise guys. When you make your NFL betting decisions this season you want to remember that betting favorites and overs is something the public is looking to do versus the NFL odds. If you like the underdog or the under then you get immediate value on the football odds board. It does not mean that betting underdogs and unders are always the way to bet, but it does mean that taking them gives you a little more value. While knowing this doesn’t guarantee you a profit, it is something you have to keep in mind when betting football odds.
About the author