NFL Betting Perception

December 1, 2010 NFL Football

NFL betting lines, contrary to how they are portrayed in the media, or even what you may have been led to believe about them, are not based entirely on the merits of the teams involved but instead are based on how the public is likely to perceive a team.

NFL betting lines are set, much like stocks on the exchange market, based on what the public demand is likely to be.

NFL betting lines on popular teams like the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys more often than not cost gamblers a heavy price due to high NFL football betting lines set by the oddsmakers in anticipation of the general betting public’s demand for action on those teams. The Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, will receive very generous odds as the NFL betting lines will be set so high on their opponents in order to scare off opposition and even attract some bettors who love taking a shot with the extremely high NFL betting lines on these underdogs.

Often times you will hear an ignorant commentator on the radio or on TV make a comment about a game in how “The experts in Vegas think they will win by six points.” No, that is not what Vegas is thinking at all. What Vegas really thinks is that a six point line will attract action/business on both sides of the game regardless to the merits of the two teams involved. Even if the NFL betting chalk is actually just three points better than the dog, if public demand is anticipated to be high for the chalk and with very little appeal for the dog, the NFL betting lines will be jacked up to reflect the public’s demand.

When a gambler looks at the NFL betting lines he should have already made his own NFL football betting lines based on his own set of criteria including power ratings and his own anticipation of public demand. NFL football betting gamblers that set their own NFL betting lines can then compare them to what the oddsmakers put out and often isolate both good values as well as games to avoid. When there is a significant difference between a gambler’s preset NFL betting lines and the actual NFL betting lines, a smart gambler can often figure out why and anticipate potential traps that are often set by the NFL football betting oddsmakers.

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