NFL betting overlays (laying too many points) are something you really need to avoid. While this is obvious, the clues to potential overlays in NFL betting are more subtle.
NFL betting can be successful if you are not constantly laying too many points. The first and most obvious clue to potential overlays is popular, “name brand” teams that are home chalks, particularly against weak teams.
In the pros you will often see NFL betting overlays on such home chalks as New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Dallas, and Pittsburgh. Other overlay teams in NFL betting would potentially include Chicago and Denver. That does not mean, however, that these teams will be cash cows as large home favorites. The NFL football betting oddsmakers realize that poor teams visiting such traditional powers are not appealing to gamblers and will, as a result, jack up their NFL betting lines accordingly in order to (a) scare off money from the chalk and (b) perhaps draw in some action on the dog.
Another clue to overlays in NFL betting is a drastic result from the previous week. If a team either scored a blowout win or suffered an embarrassing blowout loss this sticks into the minds of the mainstream NFL betting public and affects their wagering as a result. It is important to not take the previous week’s results as pure gospel and realize, again, that the NFL betting oddsmakers know how the public reacts and they are ready with adjusted lines to meet the demands of the consumer.
Yet another major clue to potential overlays in NFL betting regards injuries. If a team finds itself as an underdog and one of their key players is going to be missing in that game, you can rest assured that the chalk is likely an overlay as the public is even less likely that before to take the underdog, who is now minus the one player that was considered crucial to their ability to possibly hang in the game in question.
Cutting out overlays cuts out the house edge and gains back part of that 10% vig for NFL betting gamblers.