NFL Betting Odds Turnovers

December 1st, 2010 NFL Football

As you consider NFL betting odds you should know that turnovers are perhaps the biggest factor in determining wins and losses

By looking at the turnovers stats for both teams in NFL betting odds you could almost 60 of your wagers. And that is without looking at any other NFL betting odds statistic. You don’t have to worry about the teams, the football betting line, home or away statistics, etc. You only focus on turnovers in your bet.

Did you know that the team with the fewest turnovers in a game wins in the NFL 78% of the time? Did you know those teams cover the football betting spread 75% of the time? Look at how important this one factor is in NFL odds compared to others. The team with the most rushing yards only covers the football betting spread 69% of the time. The team with more yards only covers 64% of the time in NFL betting. The team with greater time of possession covers only 66% of the time in NFL betting.

Turnovers are really that important in NFL betting. The big question becomes how do we predict which team will have the fewest turnovers in a game? You would think that a team that rarely turns the ball over against a team that turns it over many times would be the play you want. That seems logical but it is wrong. It is exactly the opposite of what works in NFL betting. A team with a poor turnover ratio playing a team with a great turnover ratio is actually the bet to make in NFL betting. It doesn’t make sense, but in NFL betting things that make sense usually lose. You do need a working database to go by and that usually means four games. You can start in week #5 of the NFL regular season.

You can easily find the turnover margin for each team in NFL Betting Statistics. If you took the team with the worst turnover margin in each game and bet them against the football betting spread you will win about 57% of the time. In the 1990’s there was only one year where you had a percentage less than 50%. There was one year where you won 67% of your games. Sometimes in NFL betting you have to do the opposite of what is logical. Predicting turnovers is difficult to do and sometimes doing the opposite of what you think will happen works very well.

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