Trend handicapping NFL betting odds itself, is a dead end road to nowhere except a depleting gambling bankroll
By themselves and standing alone trends cannot beat the NFL betting odds on a consistent basis because oddsmakers posting the numbers of those NFL betting odds are aware of all significant trends and other “common knowledge” that the general public has access too. If there is an incredibly strong trend, those who make the NFL odds will certainly adjust their numbers and the price on the football betting boards to reflect that.
Trends can be useful as a starting guide when analyzing a potential bet from NFL betting odds. Trends can give the pro football bettor a feel for what has transpired in the past in a certain matchup or situation such as time of year, letdowns or peek-aheads, revenge, etc. When such trends in NFL betting odds are then used as ONE of several handicapping ingredients they can bolster a pro football bettor’s confidence as long as he has other solid methodology going in his favor.
The problem with trends in NFL betting odds should be obvious; trends are based on PAST data, on things that have already happened with different players, coaches, circumstances and times and that does NOT equate in the same results repeating themselves over and over again.
Another problem with trends, particularly strong ones, is that, just like stocks on the exchange, eventually you end up buying high and selling low which is just the opposite of what you want to be doing. When a strong 80-percent or better trend in NFL betting odds becomes well publicized, it is certain to eventually be doomed because it has attracted too much attention, and money, on it to still be of any value.
Warning signs of a long term power trend being about to bust can be coaching or player personnel changes, momentum or “karma”, injuries, weather or other circumstances that are part of the final football betting equation.
A final decision to make in football betting should be treated like a nice salad, which is comprised of several key ingredients. Trends in NFL betting odds may be the “lettuce” for a handicapper but he better add a lot to it in order for the salad to satisfy at the end.
About the author