NFL Betting Face-Off in the AFC South

October 9th, 2019 NFL Football

For several years, the Indianapolis Colts were one of the safest NFL betting football teams that could’ve been made. After the 2011 that saw Manning depart with the team, the Colts have enjoyed continued success with Andrew Luck under center.

That success includes three consecutive seasons where the Colts finished with an 11-5 record, and two consecutive seasons where they won the division. Unfortunately for Colts NFL betting fans, that success came to an abrupt stop in 2015 when Indianapolis struggled to finish 8-8. With that record the Colts failed to qualify for the playoffs, but fans were hopeful that a new season would bring new success.

But that hasn’t been the case. As things stand now the Colts are third in the AFC South with a 2-3 record. Indianapolis hasn’t been playing their best football, but there’s still plenty of time left in the season for a turnaround. In NFL betting Week 6 the Colts will have a chance to make some headway in the division by facing their AFC South rival, the Houston Texans. The Texans currently lead the South, so knocking down the division’s leader would be a great way to make some progress towards the playoffs. Since the Texans have the better record, will the top sportsbooks list them as the favorites?

Week 6 – Sunday, October 16th 

Indianapolis Colts +3 (-105) 49 (-110) +145
Houston Texans -3 (-115) 49 (-110) -165

The odds are convinced that Houston is the better team, but is Brock Osweiler really a better pick than Andrew Luck for your bet on NFL games? There’s no doubt that Osweiler is the more photogenic of the two, but from what we’ve seen so far the two have been playing very different football. Osweiler’s play has been so poor in 2016 that the Texans are certainly getting a case of buyer’s remorse.

Osweiler was brought in on a contract worth $18 million a year, as well as $37 million guaranteed. The Texans were comfortable spending that kind of money because the consensus was that the addition of Osweiler would be the final piece of the puzzle. With Osweiler under center both fans and critics were certain that the Texans would become contenders, but now midway through the season, that sentiment couldn’t be farther from the truth. Osweiler is only completing 58% of his passes, and has 7 interceptions to just 6 touchdowns.

On the other hand, Luck has been playing much better. Right now Luck holsters a 63.9% completion percentage, an impressive 95.4 passer rating, and 10 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. Yet, the Texans currently enjoy the better record, as well as the better odds. The big difference in their records and odds is defense.

Indianapolis’ defense ranks 30th for points allowed, 30th for total defense, 28th against the pass, and 18th against the run. On the other hand, the Texans defense ranks 13th for points, 5th for total defense, they’re #1 against the pass, and 25th against the run. If the Texans’ pass defense can neutralize Luck, then Houston might just be the better option for your bet on NFL money lines.

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