On Sunday, Buffalo hosts New England on Sunday as the only unbeaten team in the AFC East. The Bills are 3-0 and scoring more than 33 points a game. Correlate that with Josh Allen throwing for 786 yards and adding six rushing touchdowns. At the same time, James Cook has already piled up 346 yards on the ground. Highmark Stadium in October has been their stage. And this is the first division game of the year for both clubs.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are 1-2 and coming off a 35-6 NFL odds loss in Jacksonville. That defeat thoroughly exposed the offense. Drake Maye has one touchdown pass against six interceptions through three games. Of great concern is that the Pats are averaging only 12 points. Namely, Rhamondre Stevenson has been the most reliable piece on that side of the ball. But the line and the passing game have not kept drives alive.
Overall, Mike Vrabel’s defense has been more respectable than the scoring average suggests. That’s the only reason this doesn’t look like a mismatch on paper.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Information
| Date and Time: | Sunday, October 4, 2026, 1 PM ET. |
|---|---|
| Location: | Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. |
| TV Coverage: | CBS |
| Team | Spread | Total | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +6½ ( EV ) | 48½ ( -114 ) | +237 |  |
| Buffalo Bills | -6½ ( -120 ) | 48½ ( -106 ) | -315 | |
| ||||
The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, October 4, 2026, with kickoff at 1 p.m. Eastern at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The Online Betting matchup airs on CBS. Also, it will stream on Paramount+ in markets that carry it. Buffalo is 3-0. New England is 1-2 after a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Matchup Analysis
On the whole, the NFL Betting matchup is decided by whether New England can make Josh Allen a pocket passer. Buffalo’s offense is built on Allen leaving the structure, Cook hitting the perimeter, and play-action off that threat.
The Patriots have been decent against the pass in volume. But they have not shown they can keep Allen in the pocket for four quarters. Additionally, Buffalo in early October usually gives the home quarterback extra room to scramble. If Allen is forced to stay in the pocket and throw on schedule, New England’s secondary has a chance. But if he is allowed to create, the score gets away quickly.
On the other hand, the Bills defense will dare Drake Maye to beat them downfield after six interceptions in three games. Maye has been accurate in short areas and a threat with his legs. Specifically, that’s how New England stayed competitive in its one win. Buffalo will crowd the line, take away Stevenson’s early-down work, and make Maye win from the hash. Correlate that’s a hard ask on the road against a 3-0 team that has not trailed much.
Consider that Vrabel will try to shorten the game and steal a possession with the kicking game. By contrast, Sean McDermott will try to end it in the first half by winning first downs. The coaching contrast is that simple. The team that wins early downs wins the afternoon.
SBG Free Picks
To conclude, Wise Guys will take the Bills to cover seven at home. They are a full tier better right now. And Allen plus Cook should control first down against a Patriots team that has scored 12 points a game. Finally, the total leans under 48.5. New England does not have the offense to keep pace. In turn, Buffalo can win this with the run and field position without needing a 30-point afternoon.
SBG Best Bet: Buffalo Bills and Under the Total.