The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills have a storied rivalry that dates back a long time. Since 1960, these two teams have shared the same AFC East division since their founding in the American Football League. The Patriots are struggling to regain their prominence under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel. On the other hand, the Bills are among the betting on NFL favorites to win the AFC. Buffalo believes that the window is wide open for a Super Bowl bid in 2025. But they also realize that the window could slam shut sooner rather than later.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Information
| Date and Time: | Sunday, October 5, 2025, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| TV Coverage: | NBC |
| Team | Spread | Total | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +9 ( -124 )48 ( -110 )+340 |  | ||
| Bills | -9 ( +104 )48 ( -110 )-435 | |||
| ||||
New England Patriots Team Overview
Last week, the New England Patriots routed the Carolina Panthers 42-13 as 5.5-point home favorites. The game went over the sportsbook total of 41.5. New England is 2-2 straight up, against the spread, and over the total.
Overall, New England has NFL metrics of 14th for total offense, 8th for passing, 26th for rushing, 11th for scoring, and 27th for fewest turnovers committed. New England ranks 15th for total defense, 27th against the pass, 3rd against the rush, 10th for fewest points allowed, and 14th for takeaways.
Marcus Jones sparked New England with a pair of huge punt returns. Including one for a touchdown. And then quarterback Drake Maye accounted for three touchdowns as the Patriots rolled. Overall, Jones set a franchise record with 167 punt return yards on three attempts. Maye threw two touchdowns and added a rushing score against his hometown team.
Maye was 14 for 17 for 203 yards. Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins caught his scoring passes. Stefon Diggs gained 101 receiving yards on six catches.
Buffalo Bills Team Overview
Last game, the Buffalo Bills won 31-19 against the New Orleans Saints. The game went over the total of 49. Buffalo is 4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread, and 3-1 over the total.
Overall, Buffalo has NFL metrics of 2nd for total offense, scoring, and fewest turnovers committed. Buffalo ranks 10th for total defense, 1st against the pass, 31st against the rush, and 17th for fewest points allowed.
Josh Allen threw two touchdown passes, ran for a touchdown, and the Buffalo Bills held off the New Orleans Saints. Correlate that Allen completed 16 of 22 passes for 209 yards. The Bills overcame their first turnover of the season as well as 11 penalties after committing just 14 through three games.
After being shut out in the second quarter, the Bills received the second-half kickoff and drove 80 yards. Finally, Allen ran 5 yards for a touchdown that increased their lead to 21-10.
Patriots at Bills Betting Trends
New England has been a surprisingly good value on the road with four payouts in their last six games in that role. Also, the Patriots have gone over the total in five of their most recent eight games.
Buffalo has been a solid home value with eight payouts in their most recent 11 home games. Additionally, the Bills went over the total in 12 of their last 15 home games.
In the series between New England and Buffalo, the Patriots got the money in 11 of the last 18 meetings. Additionally, six of the last eight meetings between the Patriots and Bills have gone over the total.
Specifically at Buffalo, New England has bossed the cashier’s cage with 14 payouts in their last 20 visits. Including the two most recent meetings. Four of the last six games between the Patriots and Bills at Buffalo went over the total.
Patriots at Bills SBG Free Picks
In this situation, Buffalo will be overpriced as the public Betting on NFL choice. New England will get an enhanced price and has a record of success and good value in this series.
Patriots at Bills SBG Best Bet: New England Patriots.