Investing in Football Odds

December 1, 2010 NFL Football

A good way to begin wagering against college and NFL odds is to understand how the football odds are made.

Football odds really should be bet as an investment if you are hoping to make money. Instead of just betting wildly you should look at college and NFL odds as investments. How do you do that? Football odds can be treated just as you would any other investment. That means you have a set amount of money for the investment, a good plan or strategy for making money, and the discipline to stick with it.

The football odds maker sets the betting line mainly based on perception. This may sound strange but NFL odds are so much in the public’s eye that perception is everything. The NFL football odds are not put together based on strictly the stats but more on what the perception of the teams are. For example, you could have the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Washington Redskins. The football odds on the game have the Cowboys a nine point home favorite. The real line on the game should have the Cowboys by a touchdown. The reason the football odds are higher is that the public believes the Cowboys are better than they really are. This is perception and it is so very important when you look at the NFL odds.

You get the same time of perception problems in the NFL football odds with poor teams. We know in the previous example that Dallas is a very public team. On the other side of the equation you have a team like Detroit who the public wants no part of. For example, the Lions may be in Chicago to play the Bears. Chicago is a 12 point home favorite. The real line should be Chicago -10 but because the perception of the Lions is so bad the football odds maker has to shade Chicago. This is a perfect example of public perception determining the actual football odds.

When you look at football odds as an investment you must be willing to take the value. That means you might have to play Washington and Detroit in the above examples. It might be hard to swallow but you are betting for value, not for public perception. That is what making money versus the football odds is all about.

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