Following the Crowd with Football Lines

December 1, 2010 NFL Football

The crowd is a lot more powerful than you might believe in terms of football lines. They impact both college and NFL betting lines on a regular basis.

Football lines are bet by a large number of gamblers around the world. If you want to win money versus college and NFL betting lines you need to find value. Rarely will you find that value in football lines by going with the crowd.

Football lines value is when you lay fewer points on favorites and take more points on dogs. The same thing applies to totals in football lines as you want to bet under totals that are too high and over totals that are too low. The problem with finding this value is that it doesn’t just magically appear out of thin air. Let’s start with where you will most certainly not find value when betting football lines. You simply will never make money betting college or NFL betting lines in the long term by following the crowd. After all, if the masses were usually right, there would be no sportsbooks staying in business. Finding value when you bet football lines means you must change your way of thinking about and analyzing football games.

Remember that the crowd usually bets football lines the same way because they all think alike and use the same sources of information for their plays. If you want to break away and actually find value you are going to have to learn to think “outside the bun” and think more like the oddsmaker who makes the football lines. When you learn to read the hidden language of the football lines and what the actual value on the board should be versus what it is, you can find value.

If they like a team then you can bet the oddsmaker will raise the football lines. If you follow the crowd then you are paying that price versus college and NFL betting lines. If you go against them you are getting added value versus the football lines and that is the goal.

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