Eagles vs. Buccaneers NFL Wild Card Playoff Betting Analysis (01/15/2024)

Eagles vs. Buccaneers NFL Wild Card Playoff Betting Analysis (01-15-2024)

Wild card weekend will end Monday night with an intriguing matchup of teams going the opposite directions. At the onset of the season, the Philadelphia Eagles were considered unbeatable. However, they ended the season with an ugly implosion and blew the NFC East title to the Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were ignored in the preseason NFL betting odds future markets. But Tampa Bay ended up as the NFC South champion and gained home field for the wild card round. Head coach Todd Bowles went from as good as fired to a hero.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Information

Date and Time:Monday, January 15, 2024, 8 p.m. ET.
Location:Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
TV Coverage:ESPN and ABC
Odds at SBG Sportsbook
Eagles-2½ -12044 -110-145
Buccaneers+2½ EV44 -110+125
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Philadelphia Eagles Team Overview

Last game, the Philadelphia Eagles lost against the New York Giants as 5.5-point road favorites. The game went under the online betting total of 43.5. Philadelphia has a record of 11-6 straight up, 6-8-3 against the spread, and 9-8 over/under the total. Philadelphia ranks 8th for total offense, 16th for passing, 8th for rushing, and 7th for scoring. Defensively, they rank 26th overall, 31st against the pass, 10th against the rush, and 30th for points allowed. Also, Philadelphia ranks 23rd for fewest turnovers lost and 26th for takeaways.

Of major concern is how the Eagles are limping into the playoffs. Philadelphia lost five of its final six games straight up and failed to get the money in its final seven games. An alarming drop in defensive effectiveness was the main culprit. Of course, the Eagles had their share of injuries. But what NFL team doesn’t lose key players during the year?

In the loss to the Giants, Jalen Hurts injured the middle finger of his throwing hand. Thus, gamblers who were already skittish about the Eagles have more to worry about.

Hurts had a steep drop in quality production this season. Following a 96.8 QBR with a 28/10 TD/INT ratio in 2022, he posted an 89.1 23/15 TD/INT ratio in 2023. Also, Hurts dropped from 832 yards rushing in 2022 to 605 yards this season.

Overall, RB D’Andrew Swift led the Eagles in rushing with 1049 yards, 4.6 YPC, and five TDs. Hurts’ favorite target was AJ Brown (106 catches, 1456 yards, 13.7 YPC, seven TDs, 66 first downs). Jake Elliott kicked 30-32 field goals for the Eagles.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Overview

Last game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 9-0 against the Carolina Panthers as 4.5-point road favorites. The game went under the total of 36.5. Tampa Bay has a record of 9-8 straight up, 11-6 against the spread, and 6-11 over/under the total. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd for total offense, 17th for passing, 32nd for rushing, and 20th for scoring. Defensively, they rank 23rd overall, 29th against the pass, 5th against the rush, and 7th for points allowed. Also, Tampa Bay ranks 6th for fewest turnovers lost and 12th for takeaways.

Late on, Tampa Bay finished the season 5-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread. Tampa Bay took advantage of a weak NFC South to win a division that nobody seemed to want.

It was a tremendous comeback season for the Bucs, head coach Todd Bowles, and QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has had a long and winding road from his status as the first overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft out of Oklahoma by the Cleveland Browns. Since last year, Mayfield has played for three teams. Most important of all, he defied his many critics with the second-best QBR of his career. Mayfield threw for the most yards and TDs of his seven pro seasons.

In sum, Mayfield threw for 4044 yards in 2023 with a 94.6 QBR and a 28/10 TD/INT ratio. RB Rachaad White kept defenses honest with 990 rushing yards and six TDs. Mayfield had two top targets in 2023. Mike Evans (79 REC, 1255 YDS, 15.9 YPC, 13 TDs, 54 first downs) and Chris Godwin (83 REC, 1024 YDS, 12.3 YPC, two TDs, 63.9 first downs). Also, PK Chase McLaughlin was 29-31 on field goals this season.

Eagles at Buccaneers SBG Free Picks

On this occasion, the Eagles are favored based on their Pro Football Bets brand. However, Tampa Bay is in better form and offers more value as a quality home dog ignored by the masses.

Eagles at Buccaneers SBG Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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