At the beginning of the season, there was optimism that the Atlanta Falcons would have a breakout season and make the playoffs. But the Falcons rarely overcome their history of NFL odds ineptitude. Starting with QB Michael Pennix Jr. being on injured reserve, a cursed franchise is falling short again. On Thursday night, the Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is trying to maintain its NFC South dynasty and fend off a challenge from the Carolina Panthers. Namely, Baker Mayfield has been one of the great turnaround stories in NFL history. But Tampa Bay is fading.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Betting Information
| Date and Time: | Thursday, December 11, 2025, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| TV Coverage: | Prime Video |
| Team | Spread | Total | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | +4 ( EV ) | 44½ ( -105 ) | +195 |  |
| Buccaneers | -4 ( -120 ) | 44½ ( -115 ) | -230 | |
| ||||
Falcons at Bucs Betting Odds Overview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as a 5.5-point favorite with the Atlanta Falcons a 5.5-point dog. The Bucs are a -255 moneyline favorite with the Falcons a +210 dog. The Falcons and Bucs opened with an over/under total of 44.5. Although this is not the ultimate marquee matchup, the Amazon Prime Thursday night games have become a strong draw at the betting window.
The Falcons are a tough sell as a perennial failure. But gamblers will have to assess whether Atlanta is getting a higher price because of its poor brand reputation. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay will get most of the casual sector support as the contending home team. But is the price too high?
Atlanta Falcons Team Overview
Last game, the Atlanta Falcons lost 37-9 against the Seattle Seahawks as 6.5-point home dogs. The game went over the total of 44. As a result, Atlanta is 4-9 straight up, 5-7-1 against the spread, and 6-6-1 over/under the sportsbook total.
Atlanta ranks 16th for total offense, 18th for passing, 12th for rushing, 27th for scoring, and 13th for fewest turnovers committed. In comparison, Atlanta ranks 14th for total defense, 8th vs. the pass, 25th vs. the rush, 19th for fewest points allowed, and 11th for takeaways.
Late on, Atlanta has covered one out of its most recent four games. Atlanta went over the total in four of its last five matchups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Overview
Last game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost 24-20 against the New Orleans Saints as 7.5-point home favorites. The game went over the total of 41.5. Now, Tampa Bay is 7-6 straight up, 5-8 against the spread, and 7-6 over/under the NFL Football Betting total.
Overall, Tampa Bay ranks 22nd for total offense, 20th for passing, 20th for rushing, 18th for scoring, and 4th for fewest turnovers committed. Tampa Bay ranks 21st for total defense, 27th vs. the pass, 8th vs. the rush, 23rd for fewest points allowed, and 6th for takeaways.
Late on, Tampa Bay has covered one out of its most recent six games. Tampa Bay went under the total in two of its last three matchups.
Falcons at Bucs Betting Trends
Late on, the Falcons have provided under-the-radar value on the road. To show, Atlanta covered the spread in three of their most recent four road games. Atlanta went over the total in three of those four games.
On the other hand, the Buccaneers have struggled to provide value at home. Tampa Bay covered the spread in only one of its last seven home games. The Bucs went over the total in six of their most recent eight games.
In the series between the Falcons and Buccaneers, Atlanta has run the payout window. To illuminate, the Falcons covered five of their last seven meetings with the Buccaneers. Three of the last four meetings in this series went over the total.
Specifically at Tampa Bay, Atlanta covered the spread in their last three visits. Two of the last three games between the Falcons and Bucs at Tampa Bay went under the total.
Falcons at Bucs SBG Free Picks
As mentioned earlier, all of the trends point favorably to the Falcons. Of great concern is the recent lack of NFL Betting value by the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has now shown enough reliability to rate the call here. Atlanta is fully capable of the upset win.
Falcons at Bucs SBG Best Bets: Atlanta Falcons and Under the Total.