The Associated Press (AP) has been presenting an Offensive Rookie of the Year award since 1957. While running backs historically dominated the award, recent years have seen a shift toward quarterbacks and wide receivers. The winner is selected by a nationwide panel of 50 media members who regularly cover the NFL. Since 2022, voters have ranked their top three candidates.
A first-place vote is worth five points, a second-place vote is worth three, and a third-place vote is worth one. In turn, the player who receives the most total points wins.
NFL betting odds point to wins. Ballots are cast at the end of the regular season, meaning postseason performance does not impact the results.
The Associated Press NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) is an annual award given to the top first-year offensive player in the league. For the 2025 season, the winner will be officially announced at the 15th Annual NFL Honors on Thursday, February 5, 2026.
While the official AP sports betting award is pending, Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is the heavy favorite for the offensive rookie of the year award after being named the 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year by the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA) on January 20, 2026.
The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award differs from other honors, such as Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) or MVP. Due to its specific eligibility, historical trends, and recent shift in voting structure.
By contrast to the OPOY or MVP, which players can win multiple times, OROY is a “once-in-a-career” award limited to a player’s first professional season.
2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | -1000 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | +900 |
| Jaxson Dart | +1400 |
| Tyler Shough | +1400 |
| All Other Players | +12000 or Higher |
Namely, Tetairoa McMillan is a standout wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers. He is widely considered the favorite to win the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Selected No. 8 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, McMillan established himself as a premier young playmaker. He became the first rookie in Panthers history to record a 1,000-yard receiving season.
McMillan has already secured several major rookie OROY odds honors following his breakout debut:
Consider that the once-trending Jaydon Blue Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign was unrealistic. He is not a finalist for the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award and will not win the honor. While the Dallas Cowboys running back made a bold preseason prediction that he would win the award, his limited regular-season production and frequent status as a healthy scratch kept him out of the official conversation.
Specifically, for the 2025-26 NFL season, Tetairoa McMillan is the prohibitive favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award. To show, he had consensus closing NFL odds as steep as -1000 to -10000 as of early February 2026. Betting markets generally close once the regular season ends and the finalists are announced, as the winner has already been voted on and will be revealed at the NFL Honors on February 5, 2026.
The “value” in this NFL wagering market has largely disappeared, as major sportsbooks estimate McMillan’s probability of winning at over 93%.
McMillan is considered the “locked-in” winner primarily because he has already swept several major precursor awards. Quarterbacks have won four of the last six OROY awards. However, wide receivers have surged recently, with Garrett Wilson (2022) and Ja’Marr Chase (2021) winning. McMillan looks to continue this trend as the first 1,000-yard rookie receiver this season.