The good news for Denver Broncos fans is that they will host the AFC championship game. The bad news is that quarterback Bo Nix is out with a broken ankle. As a result of the injury, backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham is the next in line. Additionally, Sam Ehlinger was signed earlier this season to further fortify the quarterback room. Stidham has been with the Broncos for three years and has familiarity with the playbook, so most of the regular offense can still be employed.
Although there are wild social media NFL odds rumors of Denver acquiring a retired quarterback out of a broadcast booth, etc., those are likely unfounded clickbait. The immediate task for head coach Sean Payton is to prepare the Broncos as best he can and explore alternative ways to play. Denver will face the New England Patriots on Sunday. Under the leadership of first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, the Patriots improved from 4-13 last year to 14-3 this season. Certainly, Vrabel has engineered one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history.
2025-26 AFC Championship Game New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
| Date and Time: | Sunday, January 25, 2026, 3 p.m. ET |
|---|---|
| Location: | Empower Field, Denver, CO |
| TV Coverage: | Prime Video |
| Team | Spread | Total | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -4½ ( -115 ) | 41½ ( -110 ) | -260 |  |
| Broncos | +4½ ( -105 ) | 41½ ( -110 ) | +210 | |
| ||||
Patriots at Broncos Betting Odds Overview
Oddsmakers opened with New England as a 5.5-point favorite and Denver as a 5.5-point dog. New England is a -260 moneyline favorite with Denver as a +215 moneyline dog. Finally, New England and Denver opened with a total of 40.5.
Many gamblers are hesitant to take the Broncos without Nix. Thus, they will take refuge in the favorite, which has a starting quarterback advantage. Wise Guys may not like to lay points, but they can’t deny Denver’s disadvantage without Bo Nix under center. In comparison, Denver will attract bargain hunters based on its outstanding defense, home-field advantage, and Stidham as a capable veteran replacement QB.
New England Patriots Team Overview
Last game, the New England Patriots won 28-16 over the Houston Texans as 3.5- point road favorites. The game went over the total of 41.5. New England has covered five out of its most recent five games. New England went over the total in six of its last seven matchups. In the regular season, New England was 14-3 straight up, 11-6 against the spread, and 11-6 over/under the online betting total.
New England ranks 3rd for total offense, 4th for passing, 6th for rushing, 2nd for scoring, and 10th for fewest turnovers committed. In comparison, New England ranks 8th in total defense, 9th vs. the pass, 6th vs. the rush, 4th in fewest points allowed, and 20th in takeaways.
Denver Broncos Team Overview
Last game, the Denver Broncos won 33-30 in overtime against the Buffalo Bills as 1.5-point home favorites. The game went over the NFL Football Betting total of 45.5. Denver has covered three out of its most recent five games. Denver went under the total in two of its most recent three matchups. In the regular season, Denver was 14-3 straight up, 7-9-1 against the spread, and 7-10 over/under the total.
Overall, Denver ranks 10th in total offense, 11th in passing, 16th in rushing, 14th in scoring, and 12th in fewest turnovers committed. Denver ranks 2nd for total defense, 7th vs. the pass, 2nd vs. the rush, 3rd for fewest points allowed, and 21st for takeaways.
Patriots at Broncos Betting Trends
New England covered the spread in eight of their last nine away games. The Patriots went over the total in four of their last five road tilts. In turn, Denver has covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 home games. The Broncos went over the total in five of their last eight home games.
Late on, New England has covered three consecutive games at Denver. The Patriots and Broncos went over the total in their last two meetings at Denver.
Patriots at Broncos SBG Free Picks
Although it is tempting to take the Broncos and the points, the fact remains that New England has a distinct advantage with Drake Maye at quarterback. As mentioned earlier, the Patriots have had success and profits in Denver.
Patriots at Broncos SBG Best Bets: New England Patriots and Over the Total.