No. 19 USC goes to Beaver Stadium on Saturday night for the White Out as a 5-1 team that just had to rally to beat Washington. While Penn State is 3-2 in Matt Campbell’s first season after back-to-back losses.
Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are 2-1 in the Big Ten. Saturday’s 25-21 College Football Odds win over Washington was a comeback. Consider that USC trailed by 11 in the second half, scored the last 15 points, and won on a Jahkeem Stewart 48-yard fumble return. Jayden Maiava threw for 245 yards and a score.
Previously, Oregon won 41-27 at the Coliseum, with Dylan Raiola coming off the bench after Dante Moore left. So far, Maiava is 1,744 yards, 15 touchdowns, and three interceptions. The offense is also averaging 468 yards and 37 points. The defense is the weaker side, allowing about 349 yards a game. USC is 1-5 against the spread.
Campbell’s Nittany Lions are 0-2 in the league. They opened 3-0 with wins over Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo. But they then lost 24-20 to Wisconsin at home and 34-13 to Northwestern on Friday. The Northwestern game was the ugly one. The Wildcats outrushed Penn State 413-48. In turn, Campbell said afterward the program lacked its standard of toughness and put it on himself.
Still, the PSU pass defense is the credential. It’s allowing about 120 yards a game and ranking third in the country. And the Lions are plus-6 in turnovers. The line has not held up once the opponent was a Big Ten team.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions NCAAF Betting Information
| Date and Time: | Saturday, October 10, 2026, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. Eastern |
|---|---|
| Location: | Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. |
| TV Coverage: | NBC/Peacock |
| Team | Spread | Total | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC Trojans | +1½ ( -109 ) | 54½ ( -114 ) | +102 |  |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | -1½ ( -111 ) | 54½ ( -107 ) | -123 | |
| ||||
USC visits Penn State on Saturday, October 10, 2026, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. Eastern at Beaver Stadium in University Park. It is Penn State’s White Out. The Offshore Bookmaker matchup is on NBC and streams on Peacock.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions Matchup Analysis
The College Football Betting matchup is Jayden Maiava against a pass defense that hasn’t been thrown on. And a Penn State run game that just got erased, against a USC front that hasn’t had to stop one. Those are different problems from the White Out.
Thus far, Penn State is allowing 120 passing yards a game, third in the country, and 16 points. That is the credential Campbell still has. By contrast, USC is 12th in passing at 312 yards a game. Jayden Maiava is at 1,744 with 15 touchdowns, and the Trojans convert 52 percent of third downs, tenth nationally. If the Nittany Lions can sit in coverage and make him hold the ball, the 15 touchdowns shrink
The run is the side Penn State cannot afford to lose. Northwestern just outrushed the Lions 413-48. That is not a schematic wrinkle. That is a line that lost. USC is an average running team, 156 yards a game. And it does not need to be a good one if the fit is already broken.
A White Out does not block. If Penn State is in second-and-9, it is because the run is stuffed. Correlate the plus-6 turnover margin is the closer only if Maiava gives it away. He has three interceptions against 15 scores.
SBG Free Picks
To conclude, Sharps will take Penn State plus the points and the under. The spread is a tax on a 5-1 record. So far, USC is 1-5 against the number. And the last two games were a home loss to Oregon and a 4-point rally win over Washington. Laying anything on the road, in a White Out, after a cross-country trip, is the wrong side of a number that small.
SBG Best Bet: Penn State Nittany Lions and Under the Total.