No. 1 Texas meets Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday as a 4-0 team that has already survived two games it was not supposed to make look easy. In comparison, the Sooners are 2-2 and looking for a quarterback answer after a College Football Odds bye.
Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns are unbeaten and ranked first after a September that did the ranking for them. Namely, Arch Manning led a comeback from 20 down to beat Ohio State 24-23 at home in three fourth-quarter scoring drives. The winner came with 25 seconds left, the largest comeback against a No. 1 team since 1988. Two weeks later at Neyland, Manning was 14 of 19 for 201 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked six times. Still, Texas escaped 20-17 when a Hail Mary was broken up in the end zone. He said afterward he did not play well.
The other results were wins over Texas State and UTSA. The profile is a team that can win the ugly ones. And with a quarterback who has been brilliant against the best opponent and ordinary against the next one.
Brent Venables’ Sooners are 0-1 in the SEC and out of the rankings. They beat UTEP 51-0 and New Mexico 14-6. But they lost 17-10 to Michigan, then lost 41-13 to Georgia. John Mateer threw for 231 yards and two scores in Athens. However, he fumbled twice and threw an interception in a first half that ended 28-0.
The offense has looked stuck in the two games that mattered. In addition to the bye week, there was open talk about whether Mateer stays the starter. The defense has been the better half. Specifically, that’s how a 14-6 win over New Mexico and a one-score loss at Michigan happened.
Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners NCAAF Betting Information
| Date and Time: | Saturday, October 10, 2026, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. Eastern |
|---|---|
| Location: | Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas. |
| TV Coverage: | ABC/ESPN |
| Team | Spread | Total | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Longhorns | -8½ ( -111 ) | 39½ ( -111 ) | -333 |  |
| Oklahoma Sooners | +8½ ( -111 ) | 39½ ( -111 ) | +260 | |
| ||||
Texas and Oklahoma play the Red River Shootout on Saturday, October 10, 2026, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. Eastern (2:30 p.m. Central) at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Sports Betting matchup is on ABC and streams in the ESPN app. Oklahoma is the designated home team in the even-year rotation. Of course, the crowd is split at the 50-yard line.
Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Matchup Analysis
The game is two quarterbacks who have both been ordinary when the pocket collapses. And only one of them has a defense that can force that. That is a different question from the ranking.
Arch Manning’s September splits are the Texas offense. Against Ohio State, he led three fourth-quarter touchdown drives and won from 20 down. At Tennessee, he went 14-for-19 for 201 yards, no touchdowns, an interception, and six sacks. Correlated, he was pressured on nearly half his dropbacks. Yet, Texas won 20-17 because the defense broke up a Hail Mary.
John Mateer is the opposite College Football Betting problem. He has 883 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions, and a PFF grade in the 50s. Including eight turnover-worthy plays against three big-time throws. At Georgia, he lost two fumbles and threw a pick in a half that ended 28-0. And then threw for 231 and two scores after the game was gone.
SBG Free Picks
In sum, the side leans Oklahoma plus the points. The total leans under. Last year, an unranked Texas team beat Oklahoma 23-6, which is typical of this series. Indeed, the Red River Shootout is the proverbial case of throwing out the stats and records. Oklahoma’s defense is a difference maker.
SBG Best Bet: Oklahoma Sooners and Under the Total.