March Madness gambling in the first round of the NCAA Tournament is extremely popular, especially on the #5 versus #12 game. Every year you hear about the success of the #12 versus the #5. Is it true those for gamblers who bet on March Madness?
March Madness wagering has a lot of trends and stats to consider and nearly everywhere you look there is the #12 vs. #5 matchup. Even the talking heads on television tout the #12 team and their chances against the #5 seed. The reality though is different than the myth when it comes to this particular matchup in March Madness gambling. Let’s look at the March Madness wagering numbers for the past five years of the #12 vs. the #5 matchup.
Last year this matchup split going 2-2 as Notre Dame and Michigan State covered against the March Madness wagering pointspread as the #5 seeds while Clemson and Drake did not. Two years ago the #5 seeds went 3-1 against the March Madness gambling pointspread. USC, Tennessee and Butler covered the spread for gamblers who bet on March Madness while Virginia Tech did not.
In 2006 the matchup split again with each side winning twice. The #5 seeds, Pittsburgh and Washington covered the March Madness gambling pointspread while Syracuse and Nevada did not. In 2005 it was another 3-1 success story for the #5 seeds in March Madness gambling versus the #12 seeds. Villanova, Georgia Tech and Michigan State covered the March Madness gambling number while Alabama did not. 2004 was another split as the #5 seeds Illinois and Syracuse covered the March Madness odds while Providence and Florida did not.
So what do all of these numbers tell us when we bet on March Madness? In the last five years the #5 seeds are 12-8, or 60% against the March Madness gambling pointspread against the #12 seeds. If you are going to bet the #12 seeds you are actually better off taking them on the money line. When the #12 seeds cover the number they usually win the game outright. In 8 of those previous wins against the spread the #12 seed won the game 7 of those eight times so the money line might be worth considering but so much for automatically taking the #12 seeds against the spread when you bet on March Madness games huh?
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