Margin of Victory in Final Four Betting

December 1, 2010 NCAA Basketball

Final Four betting will include a lot of statistics and trends to consider.

It is easy to get overwhelmed with it all when looking at Final Four odds.  Is there just one statistic or trend that points to the winner?

Final Four betting trends point to a single statistic in determining the ultimate winner of the NCAA Tournament.  That statistic is scoring margin.  The teams that win it all in the NCAA tourney have a dominant scoring margin.  It doesn’t matter how they play, whether it is slow or fast. It really doesn’t matter where they get their scoring, whether it is from the inside or the outside. What matters is how many points they win by.  Just look back for example at the past few years. Teams that make the Final Four are normally very good in terms of scoring margin.  North Carolina was dominant a year ago and they won the NCAA Tourney.  It has been that way for many seasons. Remember George Mason who made the Final Four as a #11 seed. They were pretty good that season in scoring margin as they ranked 17th.

Duke was third in the country in scoring margin this season so they are very capable of winning it all. They outscored their opponents by an average of 16.6 points per game. Kentucky was not far behind at 14.8 points per game.  Kansas and Syracuse were good too but they are now gone.  St. Mary’s and Ohio State were in the top 10 in scoring margin at 9th and 10th in the country.  St. Mary’s outscored opponents by an average of 13.1 points per game while Ohio State outscored teams by 13 points per game.

If a team outscored its opponents by more than 10 points per game you really can’t throw them out in Final Four odds.  Baylor, Xavier, Kansas State and Butler fit that category and West Virginia was not far back at 9.7 per game.

When you look at the Final Four betting lines keep in mind scoring margin.  The teams that excelled in this category are going to be very tough to beat. In the Final Four you are trying to narrow things down as much as possible.  You want to ultimately pick the winner of the two Final Four games and then the champion.  Scoring margin is one way to do that without looking at every statistic and trend in the world.

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