Louisville and California a Toss-Up in March Madness Betting

March Madness betting is a toss-up between 9th seeded Louisville and 8th seeded California on Friday in the South Region of the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals are the more talented team but they are wildly inconsistent and that makes them unpredictable in March Madness odds.

March Madness betting fans have seen some people going with Louisville in this contest because they have Rick Pitino as the head coach and because they are from a tougher contest in the Big East.   California might have the edge in guard play and that could be a key in this matchup.  The Bears will have to avoid getting into foul trouble though since Louisville plays a lot of players. “Our concern is their team right now, what they do, and they are capable of putting a great deal of pressure on you,” California head coach Mike Montgomery said, “That’s what they like to do. They like to wear you down. Maybe initially you don’t feel it, but eventually you do when they’re playing 10, 11, 12 players.”

Louisville shoots a lot of three-pointers but they really don’t shoot them very well.  They hit just 33.9 percent of their threes this season while Cal was much better at 37.3 percent.  “Rick’s a veteran coach,” Montgomery said. “He understands if you can get 35 (percent) from 3, you’re going to get more production than 50 (percent) from 2.”

For Louisville to win in March Madness odds they need a big game out of guard Edgar Sosa.  He is one of the most inconsistent players in the country. When he plays well the Cardinals can beat anyone.  When he decided not to show up they can lose to anyone. In his last six games he is averaging just 11.3 points per game and has 23 turnovers and only three assists.

Louisville is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. California has been much better than Louisville lately against the spread. The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The problem for California is that they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in March Madness betting.

Six of the last seven Louisville non-conference games have gone over the total. Seven of the last ten California games overall have gone over.