As of this week, the college basketball season is entering its critical final stretch, with conference tournaments on the horizon and Selection Sunday set for March 15. Overall, the college basketball betting field of 68 is shaping up to be highly competitive, dominated by power conferences like the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, and SEC. Based on aggregated Bracketology projections from major outlets, the top of the bracket features familiar blue-blood programs. Additionally, they are alongside surging teams that have benefited from strong non-conference wins and efficient metrics.
Key themes include the Big Ten’s depth, the Big 12’s defensive prowess, and bubble drama involving mid-majors and inconsistent power-conference squads. Upsets in mid-February, such as Creighton’s road win over UConn and Iowa State’s victory over Houston, have caused notable seed-line shifts. Overall, expect 8-10 bids each from the Big Ten and Big 12, with the ACC and SEC close behind at 7-9.
The committee’s Bracket Preview special on February 21 provided early guidance, solidifying Michigan, Duke, and Arizona as locks for No. 1 seeds. Additionally, Iowa State is edging out UConn and Houston for the fourth spot. Simulations show Michigan with a 97% chance at a No. 1 seed and 100% tournament probability, reflecting its 25-1 record and top-5 strength of schedule.
The No. 1 seed line is tightly contested, with minimal sportsbook odds separation among the elite. Michigan holds the overall top spot across most models, thanks to a convincing win over Purdue and an undefeated conference slate. Meanwhile, Duke’s balanced attack and Arizona’s high-octane offense round out the consensus top three, while the fourth spot rotates between Houston, Iowa State, and UConn based on recent results.
2025-26 College Basketball Future Market Update
Bracketology Updates – Conference Breakdown and Bid Projections
The Big Ten leads with 10 projected college basketball odds bids, driven by metrics like a high SOR (Strength of Record) and multiple Quad 1 wins. The Big 12 follows closely, with defensive-minded teams like Houston and Iowa State anchoring the group.
Big Ten (10 bids): Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Purdue (2), Nebraska (3), and Michigan State lead. Depth and tough scheduling could end the drought since the 2000 title. Ohio State is on the bubble after an inconsistent February.
Big 12 (9 bids): Arizona (1), Iowa State (1), Houston (1/2), Kansas (2), Texas Tech (4), BYU (6), etc. Teams are battle-tested in conference play, and projections show 9-10 teams in. Watch for TCU as Last Four In.
ACC (7 bids): Duke (1), Virginia (4), etc. Top-heavy with Duke; bubble teams like Clemson at risk.
SEC (8 bids): Florida (3), Alabama (4), Vanderbilt (4), Texas A&M (bubble), etc. The SEC has athletic rosters, but watch Auburn as First Out after losses.
Other Conferences: Big East (UConn 2, others 4-5 bids); WCC (Gonzaga 3, Saint Mary’s/Santa Clara on bubble); Mid-majors like Liberty (potential auto-bid mover).
Bubble Watch and Sleepers
The bubble is fluid, with mid-week upsets pushing teams like UCLA and Ohio State squarely into contention.
Last Four In: Saint Mary’s (Net 27, 25-4), TCU (Net 47, 17-10), Santa Clara (Net 40, 23-6), New Mexico (Net 42, 21-6). These teams need strong conference tournament showings; e.g., TCU’s 38% tournament odds hinge on avoiding bad losses.
First Four Out: VCU (Net 45, 21-7), Auburn (Net 33, 15-12), Ohio State (Net 38, 17-9), USC (USC’s stock is falling due to defensive woes).
Sleepers/Cinderellas: Gonzaga (consistent deep runs), Nebraska (underrated Big Ten dark horse), Santa Clara (WCC spoiler potential). Unheralded squads like these could engineer upsets with hot shooting.