The NC Wilmington Seahawks were to provide an excellent lesson on college basketball gambling value and public perception. Like many mid-major programs, the Seahawks only get attention with upset wins over better known teams or strong tournament runs. But college basketball betting “sharps” began to catch on early to NC Wilmington as a phenomenal value on the board.
Cash Cow
NC Wilmington began the 2005-06 season with three consecutive wins and covers, all away from home, over Butler, Wyoming, and Northwestern. They finally ran out of gas in their fourth away game at Colorado with a 54-73 blowout loss as 8.5-point dogs.
But NC Wilmington got right back on track with four consecutive wins and covers over North Texas in their home opener, then at Elon University and at William and Mary, and then back home against Virginia Commonwealth. In their fifth game of this string they lost 51-54 at Wisconsin but scored a fifth straight cover as a 10.5-point dog.
One of the potentially better college basketball betting angles
Overall NC Wilmington had covered eight of their first nine games against the spread and had a mark of 6-1 against the number away from home. This illustrates one of the potentially better college basketball betting angles which is to take a mid major on the preseason road as they are often undervalued because of their lack of mass appeal.
Mid major teams have to play a lot of their non conference games on the road to generate revenue for their respective university athletic programs
and often don’t get the respect that they deserve from gamblers as was proven by the Seahawks.
Value decrease as attention increased
With that blazing hot start against the spread, NC Wilmington was bound to catch extra attention and scrutiny from the college basketball gambling masses. But this would, of course, cause their value to decrease as attention increased.
NC Wilmington finally got to enjoy some home cooking with a pair of unlined wins over Coastal Carolina and NC-Asheville. That was followed by a 77-81 home loss to Charleston as 12.5-point chalks, a clear sign that the NC Wilmington Seahawks were overvalued. NC Wilmington proved to be an overlay yet again in their next game, a 69-82 loss at East Carolina as a 7-point chalk.
The Seahawks seemed to get things back on track with back to back covers, first in a 59-64 loss at Old Dominion as 7.5-point dogs followed by a 71-58 win at Delaware as 5.5-point chalks.
But then the Seahawks were unable to sustain momentum against the college basketball betting boards as they lost two of their next three games against the spread despite winning two of them straight up, which was a clear sign that their value had been depleted.
Roller Coaster
NC Wilmington would keep college basketball gamblers guessing much of the rest of the season. They started with a three-game-winning-streak both SU&ATS at home over Towson and George Mason followed by a win at James Madison. Just when they sucked in the public to trust them again, however, they went 0-2-1 ATS in their next three games despite winning two of those games straight up.
The roller coaster then went back up as the NC Wilmington Seahawks won and covered their next four consecutive games before dropping the regular season finale ATS to Georgia State, despite winning straight up.
Conference Champs
In the conference tourney the Seahawks beat Delaware 59-56 as 13.5-point overlays before getting wins and covers over Northeastern and Hofstra to win the Colonial tourney. In the NCAA tourney the Seahawks lost to George Washington 85-88 in Overtime as a 3-point dog for a push. After that blistering 8-1 start ATS, NC Wilmington covered just 12 of 22 games the rest of the way after the public jumped on them late.