Long Beach State 49ers

The 2004-05 Long Beach State 49ers gave gamblers a great lesson on contrarian gambling as they went just 10-20 straight up but lost just 12 out of 28 games against the spread showing that they were bargain values most of the season. In fact, by the end of the season in which they were totally discredited on a straight up basis, the 49ers went on to get the cash in five of their final seven games!

Playing as a big time loser in a “mid major” conference, it was possible that Long Beach State could retain much of their value on the board as they wouldn’t have much in the way of expectations either from the media, college basketball touts, or even “sharps” in the college basketball gambling community.

Stumbled out of the gate

Long Beach State opened the season with a 73-108 blowout loss at UNLV as 11.5-point dogs. That was followed by yet another blowout loss at California by a margin of 69-88 as 13.5-point dogs.

The 49ers home opener stopped the bleeding, at least on a straight up basis, as they scored a 108-51 blowout win over San Francisco State in a game that was not on the board.

Back on the board for their next two games, Long Beach State scored a 93-85 win over Loyola Marymount in a pick’em affair and followed that up with a 95-99 win at Portland as 6.5-point dogs.

Long Beach State couldn’t maintain gambling momentum, however, as they next lost at Sacramento State 94-106 as 4.5-point dogs and followed that up with a 56-69 loss to San Jose State as 4-point chalks as they stumbled out of the gate with four losses in their first six games.

Cash cows

The 49ers slow start coupled with their horrendous record from 2005-06 served to only add to their value potential against the board as they were one of the most unappealing teams in all of college basketball betting.

This value was first evidenced in an 86-92 loss at Pepperdine as 7-point dogs. That was followed by an 81-70 win over MD Baltimore in an unlined home game. Back on the board against Cornell, the 49ers scored a 79-65 win as 5-point home chalks. That was followed by an unlined win over UC Davis, 77-48.

Back on the board for their next two games, both on the road, Long Beach State scored a 74-77 loss at Santa Barbara as 8-point dogs. That was followed by a 79-66 win at Cal Poly SLO in a pick’em affair. The streak briefly was halted in a 72-78 home loss to Pacific as 4.5-point dogs but Long Beach State went back into cash cow status right away with an 84-73 win over Northridge as 5-point chalks.

The profit run continued with a 97-96 win at Cal State Fullerton as 7-point dogs followed by an 82-70 win at UC Riverside as 5-point chalks. After a 67-73 loss to UC Irvine at home in a pick’em affair, the 49ers got back on track with a 101-80 win at Northridge as 2.5-point dogs. That was then followed by a 78-87 loss at Pacific as 9.5-point dogs to still get the cash.

Slowing down

Long Beach State had now covered nine of their last eleven games against the spread and that, of course, did not go unnoticed with the college basketball gambling public. As the 49ers covered more games their value was bound to deplete a little bit.

Long Beach State showed their first sign of being an overlay in a 69-66 win over Cal Poly SLO as 11-point home chalks. That was followed by a 78-81 home loss to Santa Barbara as 4.5-point chalks.

Back in black

It didn’t take long for Long Beach State to recover, however as they were back in black with back to back wins and covers at home over Cal State Fullerton and then at Manhattan. After an unlined win at UC Davis the 49ers beat Riverside 82-76 as 14-point home overlays and then won and covered at UC Irvine before going 2-1 SU & ATS in the BW tourney.