Compared to the stock market there are some teams that may have exceeded expectations last year with the MLB betting odds. For example, a team that greatly exceeds their expectations for a particular year may recede in the campaign that follows. Conversely a good team that had a bad year can often rally back as an undervalued stock the following season. In 2018 Major League Baseball had its share of surprises both good and bad. The trick is to assess which teams are out of the norm for 2018.
Oakland A’s
While fans will be chasing last year’s results a longer-term view can help avert red ink with the MLB betting odds. As an example of the stock market theory the Oakland A’s make for a great study. Last year Oakland increased its win total from 75 in 2017 to 97 in 2018. A 22-win difference will impress casual gamblers that will flock to the A’s at the start of 2019. As a result, Oakland is a 30/1 choice to win the World Series after being a long shot last year.
Oakland Stats
But more experienced gamblers will take a longer view and value assessment. Oakland’s win totals in the three seasons prior to 2018 was 76, 69, and 68. Ultimately the question is if Oakland was a flash in the pan. Nobody was touting the Athletics to make the playoffs last year. Yet they surprised everyone with a wild card playoff berth. Few will be taking the A’s lightly in 2019. Opponents on the diamond will be focused. And the gambling public will be engaged. Along the same lines this will likely drive down Oakland’s betting value.
Washington Nationals
Balanced against that are the Washington Nationals. Washington began last season as a sportsbook online favorite to win the National League title. After all they had made the National League Divisional series playoffs the previous two seasons. And posted win totals of 97 in 2017 and 95 in 2016. However, the Nats fell to 82-80 last year and drowned gamblers in red ink in the process. Now the question is if that 15-win decline was a one-time thing or Washington’s new reality.
Phillies
Naturally the Bryce Harper departure from Washington to Philadelphia will have a major impact on the MLB Betting Odds. The Nats have dropped to a 12/1choice to win the World Series for 2019. While the Phillies have been bet up to 12/1 from what was a long shot status. Owing to a 14-game improvement from 66 to 80 on Philadelphia’s win total last year is cause for concern. Harper only adds to the potential of overlays and too much casual public money flowing to the Phillies.
Atlanta Braves
Yet another team to be careful with in the 2019 season are the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta went from a 72-win season in 2017 into a 90-win National League East Division champion as a massive underdog. It was the Braves first post season berth since 2013. Likewise, the Braves are a much more expensive 20/1 choice to win the World Series for 2019. Consequently, their big climb from loser to champion may show recession on the board this year.
Milwaukee
Milwaukee may have also reached a peak last year. Following a 96-win season and their first division title since 2011 prices on the Brew Crew will not be cheap.