The MLB Betting Pseudomathematics of Giants vs. Cubs

July 19th, 2019 MLB Baseball

The San Francisco Giants return to Wrigley Field tonight as the MLB betting underdogs after the Chicago Cubs beat them 4-1 last night to tie their four-game series.

Time: 8:05 PM
Venue: Wrigley Field

Sportsbook odds for fans who bet on baseball:

Giants +169
Cubs -179

San Francisco

On the mound: Matt Moore (LHP, 2-4, 5.37 ERA) will be making his 10th start of the season and sixth on the road. Moore is 0-3 with an 8.63 ERA on the road this season, but has allowed only six runs in his previous three starts. Moore surrendered two runs – one earned – on two hits in eight innings and had ten strikeouts in his last start against the Cubs in in Game 4 of the 2016 National League Division Series.

At bat: The Giants enter tonight with 19 home runs in the last 14 games, but their last non-solo homer was hit on May 8th by Hunter Pence. San Francisco’s leadoff hitter Denard Span (258 with two home runs and eight RBIs) said he would test his injured left thumb before tonight’s game in hopes of rejoining the lineup. The center fielder didn’t try taking batting practice yesterday but reported his thumb felt better. Span batted .326 (14-for-43) with a double, triple, two home runs, and six RBIs in nine games before his injury.

Trends for fans who bet on baseball: San Francisco has won eight of their last 11 games and four of their last six on the road, but has lost two of their last seven meetings with Cubs. However, the Giants have covered in 80% of their last 10 games versus the Cubbies. The MLB betting total has gone under in five of San Fran’s last seven visits to Wrigley Field.


On the mound: Kyle Hendricks (RHP, 3-2, 3.35 ERA) has been an exception to the Cubs starters’ tough May, going 2-1 with a 1.82 ERA in his last five starts, allowing six earned runs in 29 2/3 innings. Additionally, he has given up more than three runs in a single game on two occasions this season. Hendricks had a total of 14 swinging strikes with fastballs in his first six starts this season, but has accrued 17 in his last two appearances. The righty has resorted to fastballs more frequently in those two starts that before, 75% to 64%.

At bat: Ben Zobrist is 8-for-19 (.421) with two home runs and four RBIs in five games after sitting out two to recover from a bad back. Zobrist has reached safely in 21 straight games, the third-longest streak in the league.

Trends for fans who bet on baseball: The Cubs have won and covered in five of their last seven games – ditto for their last seven at home. The Cubbies are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight times hosting the Giants, but 10-2 straight up in their last 12 home games versus Frisco. The MLB betting total has gone over in 14 of the Chicago Cubs’ last 17 games at home.

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